The most significant enlargement was that of 2004, which brought eight countries from Eastern Europe (plus Cyprus and Malta) into the EU fold. This was followed by the entry of Romania and Bulgaria in 2007. Back in 2004, the then-15 member states were so anxious about the impact the newcomers would have on their economies and social systems that almost all of them (with the exception of the UK, Sweden and Ireland) did not risk opening their labor markets to the newcomers. Almost five years later, a new European Commission report ("Expanding Eastwards -- An EU Success Story") released last Friday proves that those fears were unfounded, that enlargement has been a great success both politically and economically, making it a win-win situation for EU countries new and old. In the words of European Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn, "Enlargement has served as an anchor of stability and a driver of democracy and the rule of law in Europe." Slowly but surely most EU member states opened their labor markets, fear over mass migration diminished and those countries that had immediately opened up quickly began to appreciate their new residents, including, of course, the famous Polish plumbers.
This is great news, and it is good to know that we are living in a more stable, secure and prosperous EU. But for me the EU should be ready to go further in spreading the "feel-good factor." This means delivering on promises already made to the countries of the western Balkans and Turkey while at the same time holding out our hand to the countries in our Eastern neighborhood which are without doubt part of Europe and should be offered the same opportunities as their neighbors but which are presently caught in somewhat of a limbo between their old Soviet masters and the West. I am talking here of Ukraine and Moldova. Of course, their membership (or even candidate country status) is not for tomorrow or even the next 10 years, but the EU should send a clear signal to them that when the time comes, when they get their houses in better order, there will be a place at the EU table with their name on it. If we do not do this, these countries will remain unstable and therefore be unreliable neighbors and partners, carrying out Tito-style foreign policies, frequently playing Russia and the West against each other. Although in recent times the EU has somewhat upgraded its relations with these countries with the creation of the Eastern Partnership, they are still put in the same basket as the Southern Caucasus when there should be a far clearer distinction made between those countries bordering the EU and those that do not.
Further enlargement is far from guaranteed, and where the EU's borders will eventually rest is still a million dollar question. Even though enlargement has proven to be successful, many things were easier when the EU was smaller, including decision making. These days, with 27 countries at the table, it takes longer to decide anything, and sometimes reaching a consensus is often seen as settling for the lowest common denominator, with many different priorities and concerns on numerous different topics from relations with Russia to climate change. Some of our larger and older member states often get fed up and frustrated with some of the new members and their interests. It is therefore crucial to have the new Lisbon Treaty brought into effect, which will ease some of these procedures. There is also fear that by going bigger the EU will dilute itself too much, and like empires of the past, this will result in its fragmentation and demise. Then there is the issue of power. More countries mean less votes and seats for the others. When a country is big, like Turkey or Ukraine, this is an even less desirable prospect given that both Ankara and Kiev, once in the EU, would have a lot of political clout and could change the balance and face of the EU forever. And of course, when it comes to the states to the East, there is also the Russian factor. Some member states are more than happy to use the Kremlin and its apparent desire to keep these countries under its control to keep these states at arm's length.
For the time being, going beyond the western Balkans will be far from smooth sailing, with continuing strong resistance from certain EU member states even to the promises made to Turkey. In a climate of continued enlargement fatigue, and while the Lisbon Treaty remains unimplemented, the future looks unclear. Even if Turkey, by some miracle, manages to meet all the criteria laid down, its entry is far from guaranteed. Therefore, all would-be future candidates will have a tougher time convincing the 27 member states that their future should be in the EU. They will have to fight tooth and nail to succeed, and even then, it may not be enough.
