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May 24, 2012
 
 
 
 
 
 
Columnists 17 February 2009, Tuesday 0 0 0 0
İHSAN DAĞI
i.dagi@todayszaman.com

If Israel loses Turkish public support

Maj. Gen. Avi Mizrahi, the commander of the IDF Army Headquarters, accused Turkey of massacring Armenians, occupying Cyprus and killing the Kurds.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a diplomatic note to Israel rejecting these claims as unfounded while the Turkish General Staff demanded an explanation from its Israeli counterpart concerning the statement made by the commander.

Given the very critical stance the Turkish government has taken since the beginning of the Israeli attacks on Gaza in late December 2008 and the row at the Davos summit between the Turkish prime minister and the Israeli president, such exchanges of statements should come as no surprise. It seems that both sides have made their positions clear to international actors, as well as to their respective domestic constituencies.

Going beyond this may, however, harm bilateral relations, which should be avoided.

Turkey is the only country in the region with which Israel has multidimensional and comprehensive relations that cover economic, social and military contacts and cooperation. The trade volume between the two countries is about $5 billion, just under half of which is related to military deals. Israeli companies are then the main beneficiaries of the Turkish military's modernization projects, which include contracts for the modernization of tanks and warplanes owned by the Turkish military. As part of bilateral agreements signed in 1996, Israeli military pilots undergo training in Turkey.

Israel does not have such a diverse, comprehensive and deep relationship with any other country in the region. Is Israel prepared to severely damage or even sever these relations? We will see. It is clear that statements like Mizrahi's would lead to this, adding to Israel's isolation in the region.

Moreover, Turkey's potential to be a broker among the actors in the conflict, Israel on the one hand and Palestinians, Syrians and even Iranians on the other, is ever more valuable for Israel. Although Israeli President Shimon Peres praised Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and the Palestinian head of state, Mahmoud Abbas, for understanding the Palestinian problem better than Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the fact is Israel could not have managed its security with these actors in the region. If their "understanding and cooperation" had been enough to establish peace in the region, the recent crisis in Gaza would not have erupted. Therefore, to settle the Palestinian issue and provide peace and security for its citizens, Israel needs the intervention of new actors such as Turkey, which has increased its credibility lately. If Israel seeks peace, it needs Turkey's constructive help both to persuade all sides and to sell it to the people of the region.

Israel's relations with Turkey are unique in their economic, political and military aspects. Such a comprehensive and deep relationship is very unlikely to develop between Israel and any other country in the region. Although Israel's government-to-government contacts with surrounding Arab states may improve, it is very unlikely that these relations will find social support from the Arab street for decades to come.

What should be underlined is that Turkey's relations with Israel are not only state-to-state. They have a social base -- in other words, social approval of the bilateral cooperation between the two states by the Turkish people, who are not critics of the very existence of the state of Israel, but may, however, be critics of Israel's policy toward the Palestinian people.

Yet it should be kept in mind that Turkish democracy is ever flourishing, and the will and preferences of the people are increasingly reflected in Turkey's foreign affairs as well, which was not the case in the mid-1990s when the current cooperation began.

Therefore, speeches made by Israeli authorities concerning the Armenian massacre, the Cyprus intervention and the Kurdish question will only contribute to turning the Turkish masses away from Israel and putting pressure on the government to sever its ties with Israel. If Israeli authorities continue to raise these issues, I think they will provoke the Turkish people to question the very legitimacy of the state of Israel.

This has to be avoided. Israel should not lose Turkish public support altogether.

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