High-level Turkish officials now regularly visit Arbil and have talks on issues ranging from security concerns to trade relations. Since Arbil appeared to be the side that was more interested in dialogue, it is worth exploring what has changed the behavior of the Turkish side.
Turkey's new willingness to talk to Arbil stems from multiple factors. Above all, there is the realization that the United States is on its way out of Iraq. US President Barack Obama's victory came as a wake-up call to those in Turkey who argued that Ankara's main counterpart should always be either Baghdad or Washington. The need to establish a clear channel with Arbil thus gained a new sense of urgency in late 2008. Make no mistake: There are still those in Ankara who insist that Turkey should only talk to Baghdad. But these elements within the Turkish national security establishment and Ministry of Foreign Affairs are losing ground to more pragmatic and realistic circles.
The second factor that has helped the rapprochement between Ankara and Arbil has to do with Iran. Turkey clearly fears that America's departure from Iraq will not only transform Baghdad into Iran's main Shiite partner, but that such a departure will also create a vacuum in the Kurdish parts of Iraq. This vacuum, Ankara worries, will be filled by Iran. And the last thing Ankara wants to see in northern Iraq is Iranian political and economic supremacy.
Related to this second factor, and helping Turkish dialogue with Arbil, are also economic factors. Turkey has a growing appetite for energy sources. There is also a clear need to diversify Turkey's imports of oil and natural gas. Northern Iraq becomes an attractive alternative in that context because it enables Ankara to look beyond Russia and Iran for its energy needs. Needless to say, Iraqi Kurdistan has large oil and gas resources.
In short, these three factors are the main drivers of Turkey's recent opening to Arbil. Yet, all is not good on the Ankara-Arbil front. There are still major issues that need to be resolved. The most obvious ones are the presence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the Kandil region and the problematic stalemate in Kirkuk. Let's focus on the PKK for the sake of brevity.
The PKK is still a powerful force in Turkey. It has the capacity to wreak havoc in Turkey's predominantly Kurdish regions. It also could engage in urban terrorism in major cities such as İstanbul, Adana, Mersin, İzmir, etc. The PKK also has a political wing that is unable to distance itself from the leader of the organization, Abdullah Öcalan. Although the Justice and Development Party (AKP) managed to make serious inroads in Turkey's Southeast in the July 2007 elections, the Democratic Society Party (DTP) is still a powerful political factor be reckoned with.
The fact that the DTP has many deputies in Parliament should in theory transform the party into a major counterpart for the Turkish government in terms of discussing the Kurdish question. Yet, this is not happening. The government and mainstream opposition parties are determined to isolate the DTP. This situation, in turn, only strengthens the PKK and enhances the cooperation between the DTP and PKK. Turkey is thus faced with a vicious cycle.
The irony is that the AKP has more than 70 Kurdish deputies who are by and large silent on the Kurdish issue. There seems to be a tacit agreement between the AKP and the military not to address the political dimension of the Kurdish question. Once the political dimension of the Kurdish question is out of reach, there remain only cultural and socioeconomic avenues as alternatives to address the root causes of the challenges. The AKP does its best in terms of pursuing these alternatives by launching a Kurdish TV station and constantly emphasizing economic growth and services in the Kurdish regions.
These factors are very relevant for the current rapprochement between Ankara and Arbil. In the absence of a domestic political counterpart or willingness to address the political factors behind the Kurdish question, Ankara's dialogue with Arbil serves as a substitute that tries to "outsource" the problem.
