None of them offer projects for urbanization, development, infrastructural improvement, health care or earthquake preparedness. Apparently, voters are not interested in such issues. It is also possible to argue that the media are disinterested in the problems of local administrations and that comments and inquiries on the candidates are not very interesting.
This is actually understandable because the results of this election are so determinative for the future direction of the country's regime that nobody is concerned about the actual content of the local elections. It is even possible to argue that the elections are not considered local because they have turned into a referendum on the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) administration. The Ergenekon case is apparently the primary reason for this perception because the whole investigation goes beyond locating a clandestine organization and punishing its members who perpetrated illegal activities including murders. This case influences the future of the military guardianship regime, and for this reason, it sheds light on the validity and prevalence of an understanding of democracy based on liberties. From this perspective, the direction of the Ergenekon case is also significant because its outcome will determine the direction and speed of the reforms to be introduced for rapid accession to the European Union.
Recent polls show that AK Party supporters overwhelmingly support this case. It is being hoped that a new era will start after the elimination of the gangs within the state, and the AK Party seems to be the only possible actor that will achieve this. We will have the local elections in an environment where voters will be divided into AK Party supporters and AK Party opponents. This is in fact what makes the Gaza discussions more important. This is why questions as to whether Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's reaction to Israeli President Shimon Peres in Davos was a preplanned action are being asked. Obviously, this incident promoted the AK Party's image and prestige and helped it reach out to voters.
A phone survey conducted shortly after the incident by the Metropoll polling company showed that 81.5 percent of respondents approved of Erdoğan's attitude and the government's policies. While 78.5 percent confirmed that Mr. Erdoğan did the right thing by leaving the stage, 74 percent also approved of his style. It should be noted that these responses are not imaginary and superficial because 40 percent of respondents expressed concern over probable repercussions of Erdoğan's showdown when they were asked about the possible impact of the incident on relations with Israel or anti-Semitism.
Therefore, it is obvious that the AK Party increased its votes in the aftermath of the Davos incident. More importantly, this incident reversed a trend; comparison to a public poll conducted by Metropoll a week before the Davos incident demonstrates that Erdoğan's popularity has increased by 10-15 points and reached the level of December 2007.
On the other hand, a brief review of Metropoll surveys in the order of the dates they were conducted provides some clues. The share of respondents who planned to vote for the AK Party was 50 percent, 40.5 percent, 51 percent, 32.5 percent, 39 percent and 49.5 percent, as measured by Metropoll in April 2008, June 2008, September 2008, November 2008, January 2009 and after Davos, respectively. In other words, this party has returned to the level of its highest popularity in the aftermath of the Davos incident. Besides, these figures reflect the raw results before the addition of undecided voters, which were 23.5 percent, 30.5 percent, 25.5 percent, 40 percent, 28.5 percent and 30 percent for the periods above. The initial observation suggests that there is a reverse correlation between AK Party voters and undecided voters. In other words, the lack of a final decision actually implies that the undecided voter is ambivalent about voting for the AK Party or not. When undecided voters are added to the final figures, a rather stable picture is obtained. It looks like AK Party voters plus undecided voters reached a peak after Davos. This means that the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) are losing their voters to the AK Party or the bloc of undecided voters. Support has declined to 11.5 percent for the CHP and 5.3 percent for the MHP after Davos.
The monthly Metropoll surveys also show how the opposition has been paralyzed. The main opposition CHP is stuck with a small segment ranging between 10 and 15 percent. Support for the MHP is unlikely to exceed 7-8 percent. This suggests that these parties attract voters not because of what they have done but because of the AK Party's mistakes; however, they lose their voters when the AK Party makes influential moves.
In short, my argument that the elections will turn into a referendum is confirmed by voting tendencies as well. Voters will make a choice between two different sorts of regimes instead of competing political parties. It may be argued that this is an exaggerated comment because the AK party's emphasis on democracy may be really insincere and some sort of pragmatism may prevail in the election; however, the alternative is obvious, and the voters will continue to support the AK Party as long as they do not want that alternative.
