With the war over, the country has slipped down the agenda of the international community and it seems the world is adapting to Russia keeping its hand around Georgia's throat. Of course, there are still the usual calls for respect of Georgia's territorial integrity, but at the same time relations between the European Union and Russia are virtually back to business as usual and the United States now talks about pressing the "reset" button in its relationship with Moscow. All the while the situation in Georgia remains in turmoil.
The security situation on the ground remains very dangerous, with violence taking place on an almost daily basis along Georgia's administrative boundaries with the separatist regions. In addition, over 130,000 refugees are living in difficult conditions, unable to return to their homes either because their former villages near the new borders are now burned-out shells, because they fear attacks by militias and others seeking to exploit the lack of law enforcement in the area or because they are prevented from crossing the new borders between government-controlled territory and the area now under the control of the so-called governments of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. A 200-strong unarmed EU monitoring mission does its best but has no access to either South Ossetia or Abkhazia. If there were a renewed breakout of hostilities, there would be very little they could do other than run for cover.
Both South Ossetia and Abkhazia are now more than ever under the control of Russia. Of course, they have little choice in this. Their declared independence and subsequent recognition by Russia isolated them further from the international community than ever before. They are dependent on Russia for everything. Russia has been a very busy bee in recent times, building new military and air bases in both regions as it increases troop numbers and squirrels away unknown quantities of military hardware and capabilities. They are also in the process of building a new naval base at the strategic coastal town of Ochamchira in Abkhazia. Although it is a shallow water port and therefore not ideal for Black Sea battle fleets, it is strategically important particularly if there is another war with Georgia. Therefore, the Russians have been deepening the port to make it more adequate. This means that together with their naval base at Sevastopol on Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, the Kremlin will have a stronger hand in the Black Sea.
Additionally, the ongoing peace talks known as the Geneva process are going very slowly and so far efforts to reach agreement on even border security checkpoints have been fruitless. The fourth round of talks, which involves Georgia, Russia, the EU, the US and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), will take place on Feb. 17. No one knows how long this process will go on for; it could be years. In the meantime, Russia prevented the OSCE from prolonging its mission in South Ossetia and it is also still unclear whether the UN mandate in Abkhazia will be renewed when it comes to an end in March.
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili continues to take no responsibility for what happened, even though it is very clear that he is far from innocent. He hangs on to his job, thanks to a fragmented opposition, but more and more of his supporters are starting to jump ship. It is really time for Saakashvili to acknowledge the role that he played in the summer war. His government is also in a difficult position because as long as it continues to assert its sovereign right to these territories, condemn the Abkhazians and Ossetians as pariahs and insist that this is entirely a matter of Russian aggression, nothing is going to change and this new status quo could persist for years, always with the risk of deteriorating.
As for the international community, there should be no room for complacency. In particular, the EU, which has been somewhat pushed into taking a bigger role in the region -- against the wishes of a number of member states, should not rest on its laurels but rather develop more proactive policies toward conflict resolution. Indeed, since the war in Georgia, the EU has been very self-congratulatory over its role and particularly that of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, but yet at the same time it seems to have learned no lessons given that it has failed to engage further in either of the other two frozen conflicts of its eastern neighborhoods -- namely Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria. Both are strategically important to Moscow as well as being highly militarized and therefore ticking time bombs. Be sure that, if the world allows it, Russia will only be too happy to decide the fates of these two regions, too.
