The first issue that comes to mind is the collateral damage that will be caused, particularly in areas such as the Armenian question and Turkey's ability to mediate talks between Syria and Israel. At first sight, an Armenian genocide resolution in the US Congress and Turkish-Israeli relations may not seem related. But one has only to remember that, in the past, the support of the pro-Israel lobby often proved crucial in stopping Armenian-American efforts for a genocide resolution in Congress.
The Davos incident came at a highly sensitive time in Turkish-American relations. Even before the drama in Switzerland, the pro-Israel lobby in Washington was incensed over Erdoğan's remarks about Gaza. Earlier last month, the American Jewish Committee sent a letter to the Turkish Embassy in Washington expressing grave concern over the official statements by Prime Minister Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan during the crisis in Gaza. On Jan. 21, a second letter was sent, this time signed by five leading American-Jewish organizations, expressing their "profound concern over the current wave of anti-Semitic manifestations in Turkey." In this joint letter, the American Jewish Committee, Anti-Defamation League, B'nai B'rith International, Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations and Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs complained about recent gravely distressing incidents in Turkey -- such as protestors besieging the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul and expressing hatred of Jews and other incidents, such as the door of a Jewish-owned shop being covered with a poster that said "Do not buy from here because this shop is owned by a Jew." Perhaps most worrisome is the defacing of an İzmir synagogue. The American-Jewish groups rightly argued that the Jewish community in Turkey feels "besieged and threatened. A connection is clearly perceived between the inflammatory denunciation of Israel by Turkish officials and the rise of anti-Semitism."
Given such dynamics, there were already clear indications that the traditionally pro-Turkish Jewish groups in Washington would no longer side with Ankara against the Armenian agenda of pushing a genocide resolution in Congress. Further complicating the issue is the fact that the recognition of genocide is no longer just part of the Armenian political agenda. What is truly unprecedented is the very strong and unequivocal support President Barack Obama has expressed during his campaign for the Armenian cause. As I mentioned last week in this column, some may argue that campaign promises and "governing" are two different things. Yet Obama seems to be a new and different kind of politician who has authenticity. He may actually mean exactly what he says. Unlike many of his predecessors, he is a true intellectual who probably had a well-formed idea of his own about the Armenian issue even before becoming a politician. Therefore, it is a genuine possibility that he will remain true to his word.
All of these factors produce a truly unique window of opportunity for the Armenian lobby. Simply put, the chances of an Armenian genocide resolution passing in the American legislature are now much higher compared to just a few weeks ago. Under such circumstances, the only remaining question is not whether but when this resolution will pass. Timing will matter a great deal.
If such a resolution indeed becomes reality in the next few weeks, it will coincide with the period just before Turkish local elections, scheduled for March 29. One does not need to have much imagination to predict how the Erdoğan government will react to an Armenian genocide resolution in the heat of the electoral campaign. Ankara is likely to retaliate by shutting down or "limiting" the use of İncirilik Air Base and recalling its ambassador from Washington. Things may thus easily unravel, going from bad to worse. Let's hope that cooler heads will prevail in both Washington and Ankara.
The only silver lining regarding what happened in Davos last week is that President Obama may now start seriously considering Turkey as the country that he will pick to make a major speech addressing the Islamic world. The reason is simple. After the drama in Davos, Turkey has won the hearts and minds of 1.3 billion Muslims. Erdoğan's behavior made him an instant global hero in the eyes of all Muslims, who were bitterly frustrated with the Israeli onslaught against Gaza that ended up killing 1,300 people, half of them innocent civilians. As of last week, the Palestinian cause and Turkey became one -- and all of this is thanks to the larger than life personality of Prime Minister Erdoğan. Whether the pro-Israel lobby likes it or not, President Obama is sophisticated enough to recognize these dynamics in selecting the country where he will make his speech to the Islamic world.
