These retired generals were previously vigilant in not being involved in the debate, but they are now more and more aware that the Ergenekon case has already surpassed the critical threshold. It is clear that a return will not be possible in the case and that it has already turned into a public sphere where the two sides have come face to face. It is a greater risk to be just an onlooker to the case.
One of the apparent reasons is that the public attaches considerable importance to the case. According to a comprehensive public survey conducted by GENAR Research Education and Consultancy between Jan. 9 and19, among Turkey’s most critical problems is “Ergenekon,” preceded by “economy.” At a time when the world is going through financial turmoil, the percentage of those who believe that the economy is Turkey’s most crucial problem is 31, a figure far below its usual percentage. On the other hand, Ergenekon trails with 23 percent.
More importantly, participants of the survey seem divided into two camps as to how they perceive the Ergenekon case: One group, with 71 percent, sees the case as the state’s efforts to get rid of illegal groups, and the other group, with 28.5 percent, sees it as attempts to intimidate the opposition. In other words, a pretty clear consensus has been reached among the public about the importance and content of the Ergenekon case.
This situation shows that the Republican People’s Party (CHP), one of the fervent opponents of the case, may protect its votes in upcoming elections even if it cannot increase them. The survey also reveals that the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which seems to be ensuring the conduct of the case, will even increase its votes. Unsurprisingly, taking the undecided voters and those who will cast an invalid vote in the elections into consideration, answers to the question “Which party would you vote for if local elections were held today?” show that the AK Party will sweep 47.5 percent of the vote, while the CHP will garner 23 percent, and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) will receive 12.5 percent of the vote.
The findings of the survey that indicate that the AK Party has a greater chance of increasing its votes before the approaching local elections than of losing a portion of them are more interesting. For example, the percentage of those who believe that the AK Party administers the country in a successful manner is 57.5 percent. Regarding the ruling party’s success in other fields, 60.5 percent of the respondents find it successful in the field of social aid and 49 percent find it successful in the field of economy. More importantly, the percentage of those who think the AK Party is successful in all fields has been on the rise since November. In other words, the percentage of those pleased with the ruling party’s performance is greater than those who are expected to vote for it at the moment and this percentage keeps rising. The difference between the percentage of those content with the AK Party’s performance and the percentage of those who are expected to vote for this party can be interpreted as stemming from an “allergy” toward the ruling party. In other words, this difference, believed to be around 10 percent, stems from secularists who are satisfied with the deeds of the government though they don’t consider voting for the AK Party.
Here lies the government’s will to help carry out the Ergenekon case and clear the state of illegal formations. As the local elections draw nearer, this case will find itself in the center of tension between the parties. Though the competition will be for “local” administrations, the preference of the public will reflect its future ideologies. Therefore, as was the case in July 2007 polls, the AK Party’s stance, which implies a series of reforms in the state, will draw a certain amount of votes from secularists.
In such a situation, we can expect the votes of the ruling party to exceed 50 percent. This trend is also verified by psychological perceptions. For example, the percentage of “confidence” among the public for President Abdullah Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is 68 and 57.5 percent, respectively. These figures are 34.5 and 25.5, respectively, for MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and CHP leader Deniz Baykal. Furthermore, these percentages have been on the rise for Gül and Erdoğan since November and on the decline for the other leaders. In addition, answers to the question “Which politician do you think is closest to you?” reveal that Erdoğan has no rival in the country. While only 14 percent of respondents believe that Baykal is closest to them, this figure is 44 percent for Erdoğan. This finding demonstrates that at least one-third of those who plan to vote for the CHP don’t like Baykal and may prefer another party at the ballot box.
As a result, the GENAR survey shows that the MHP may stabilize the amount of votes it will garner in the upcoming local elections between 12-15 percent. It also reveals that there will be an interesting competition between the AK Party and the CHP. If the government manages to take meaningful steps in the field of economy and the Ergenekon case, the AK Party may sweep more than 50 percent of the vote. If Baykal continues to behave as if he is Ergenekon’s lawyer, the AK Party’s victory will become inevitable.
By the way, let me present you with a few other points from the GENAR survey. According to answers to questions that inquire about the “peer pressure” of religious people on secularists, only 1 percent of those polled said they were subjected to pressure in their private lives for the AK Party’s six years of rule. And for those who wonder what the public’s opinion is about the will to join the European Union, 66 percent of those polled still favor Turkey’s accession to the union! In other words, there is no trend in the public to distance itself from EU values.
The Ergenekon case probably serves as the concrete acceleration for the EU membership process and the will to become “more European” becomes clearer as the state is cleared of illegal formations.
