Russian energy officials have been turning the gas flow on and off in an extended dispute with Ukraine over pricing and accusations of Ukraine stealing gas from export pipelines. Whether or not Ukraine is guilty, Moscow seems determined not to give up its justification for halting gas shipments to Europe. As the dispute concerns almost one-fifth of the natural gas used in Europe, a shut-off, especially in the depths of winter, could be devastating for the 18 countries affected, virtually the whole of Europe.
This column is not the place to lay out the complex negotiations over clauses and annexes and earlier agreements about the pumping stations, pipeline route, countries' obligations over gas transit, pricing and technical issues such as repressurizing the pipeline system before its full service, full access to dispatching centers and underground gas storage sites either in Moscow or Kiev and what has to be the daily gas shipment volume, whether 76 or 300 million cubic meters across Ukraine. These can be resolved through diplomatic talks and bargaining.
However, more interesting is what Gazprom's deputy chief executive, Aleksandr I. Medvedev, said in a conference call with journalists. Medvedev argued that "Ukraine's actions seemed to be directed from Washington after the United States and Ukraine signed a partnership agreement in December that included a clause on energy cooperation. … It looks like they are dancing to music that is not orchestrated in Ukraine. They are dancing to music orchestrated elsewhere. I am making reference to the agreement between Ukraine and the United States."
A number of recent events -- the NATO expansion and missile defense and the response from the US and Europe to the war with Georgia in August of last year, the financial collapse and domestic concerns in Europe, the revelation that the US rejected several Israeli requests last year to facilitate or assist attacks on Iran -- have led to the situation where Russia is "no longer seeking the good opinion of the West." Under the pressure of unfolding events, after confrontations over oil, gas, wealth, political influence and new alliances and due to its long international isolation after the Soviet collapse, Russia can no longer remain silent on any interference or potential attack in the region. It is sending a clear message demanding reciprocal understanding, interaction and equal standing in the world before US President-elect Barack Obama takes office.
Some Russian voices blame the US for Russia's financial crisis and are deeply irritated by the prospects of American military influence reaching Ukraine and a potential attack on Iran, their ally in the region. With and after the August war in Georgia, Russia has tried to restore its rightful place in world events. It will not be pushed back "under the table." As Europe buys much of its gas and fuel from Russia and Iran, European countries do not wish to be caught "cold and powerless" or to be caught in any tension between the US and Russia-Iran. So, the Europeans are trying to talk to all sides, as in the cases of Ukraine, Georgia, Iran and the latest Israeli onslaught on Gaza.
In the last three decades the world has seen enough of those who use their power and technological means to satisfy their greed, hatred and vengeance, those who are able to bring about as much destruction in a single day as would have taken a century in the past. Not only can such people demolish the most formidable-seeming systems or infrastructures in one go, they can also bring ruin to the most established ideas, place restrictions on long-held beliefs and, supported by the mass media, represent right as wrong and vice versa. In no previous period of human history have collapse and reform happened on such a scale or at such speed.
Those who oppose this flood of chaos can and must find the opportunity to express or present their alternative standpoints. What is wrong with talking and establishing dialogue with those who have a different opinion, worldview or culture from you? What is wrong with talking and trying to come to far cheaper and less bloody mutually approved terms before bombing, maiming, killing and orphaning thousands and helping to raise them as the most violent and radical elements of the world's common future? Every step taken in the direction of establishing peace, however small, will play a part in the worldwide reforms we hope for. In this respect, Europe's recognition of its need to coexist peacefully with Iran and Russia, the refusal by the current US administration to aid an Israeli attack on Iran and Mr. Obama's recent promise to "engage" with Iran are very encouraging. The world is anxiously waiting for the new US administration's contribution to peace.
