In the end, only the Ukrainians turned up because the Russians were apparently unable to land their plane due to bad weather. Not surprisingly, they blamed the Russians for the entire gas fiasco; however, if they were expecting sympathy, they were mistaken. There were a number of furious MEPs condemning both countries for their unprofessional and unreliable behavior and demanding an independent investigation into who was most to blame for the suffering of their citizens -- insisting that the country which was eventually found to be responsible be made to pay compensation.
During the course of last week, the EU went from feeling quite concerned to sheer panic. In Slovakia, for example, there was even talk of switching back on an antiquated -- even dangerous -- nuclear reactor, such was their desperation. Of course, for Slovakia's leadership, having a freezing population with no gas is hardly good for opinion poll ratings. For Russia, being in trouble with the EU is nothing new. For Ukraine, a country that is endeavoring to be a reliable and trusted partner, being branded unreliable and unprofessional is not good news -- but it is excellent news for the Kremlin.
But now the worst is over. The Czech presidency (with a little help from friends in Germany who, apparently, called Vladimir Putin) agreed on a deal with the Russians and Ukrainians earlier this week and EU monitors are now on the ground controlling the gas gauges at stations on Ukraine's eastern and western borders, ensuring that Ukraine is not stealing any gas, which is what it was accused of doing by Russia. Gazprom has now turned the gas taps back on and those countries affected should have their gas deliveries restored within the next few days. Although the Kremlin has tried to play tough, there can be little doubt that they will be pleased to get the gas flowing again because they simply cannot afford the losses.
But still, the war between Russia and Ukraine over pricing, transit fees and unpaid bills, which is both economically and politically motivated, remains unresolved and Ukrainian citizens will continue to suffer. Russia will carry on using energy to shape the internal political situation in Ukraine, in hopes of replacing the pro-Western government with a more Kremlin-friendly regime. If we look at a new poll by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, we can see that their efforts are going well. If presidential elections in Ukraine were held today, President Viktor Yushchenko would only get 2.9 percent of the vote, while the Russian-friendly Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych would take 30.3 percent and the (currently) pro-Russian prime minister, Yuliya Tymoshenko, would take 16.7 percent.
I hope this episode has shaken the EU up over the slow pace at which it tackles energy security and diversification. It should give it more reason to strive for a common energy policy as opposed to the present arrangement, where energy is a national competence with no two countries getting the same deal with Russia. The Kremlin uses this EU weakness wholly to its advantage. We need more solidarity and more speed. Back in January 2006, the last time Russia had a dispute with Ukraine (resulting in gas shortages in the EU), the EU decided to prioritize energy diversification. Given what has happened, it clearly did not prioritize enough.
Now is the time for real action. The member states of the EU need to quickly follow through on the proposals put forward by the European Commission in the Second Energy Review which was published at the end of last year. This includes the rapid interconnection of existing energy networks, linking the Baltic and Mediterranean region; encouraging investment in cross-border infrastructure; the development of a southern gas corridor to bring in gas from Caspian Sea and Middle Eastern sources; increased volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) being made available to all member states, either directly or through other member states on the basis of solidarity arrangements; the completion of the Mediterranean energy ring, linking northern and southern Europe; and the development of the vast solar and wind energy potential of the southern Mediterranean region. The EU also needs to reassess its crisis response mechanisms, as well as ensuring that in the new partnership agreement it is negotiating with Russia there are strong guarantees under the chapter dealing with energy to ensure that Russia cannot just cut gas supplies.
Much work needs to be done and much solidarity needs to be shown. I am not convinced that the EU is capable of mustering the political will to do it. I hope I am wrong, but it would not surprise me if we have another such crisis at some point in the future, particularly while Ukraine continues to have no cohesion in its leadership and relations with Moscow remain tense.
