As a result, domestic defense companies signed contracts with government procurement agencies to design and produce military technology locally -- or in cooperation with foreign companies ready to share their technologies with Turkey when necessary.
Those projects included the production of basic training aircraft, as well as modern tank development with South Korea, brand new attack helicopters with Italy and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with Israel. The total cost of these projects is estimated to be just below $5 billion.
These projects are generally set to be completed by the end of 2012. If they are not completed in a timely manner, this will create problems for meeting the requirements of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK).
Therefore, it is essential that each phase of these projects be watched and followed carefully to ensure that high-quality products which can compete in the international market are the end result.
Still, even if these projects are monitored carefully to ensure that production meets international standards, there remain serious risks of delays or failures given the poor state of Turkey's economy, which may not be able to generate the necessary revenue for Research and Development (R&D) projects.
With Turkey's current allocation of resources to R&D projects generally well below international standards, the biggest question is how such ambitious projects as those mentioned above can succeed? While this is the reality, can Turkey create products that will excel beyond everyone else's systems? If this is what the Turkish decision-makers believe, they may be extremely naive.
It would be nothing short of a miracle to create such excellent products in the coming three or four years while Turkey does not have enough money to spend on R&D projects. Taking into consideration the fact that the total turnover of around 80 Turkish defense companies was just $2 billion in 2007, around 1 percent of gross national product (GNP), Turkish procurement officials should pursue more realistic policies in the defense industry rather than trying to put their stamps on miracles that will not take place.
Another question that can be asked is why Turkey wants to be an owner of military systems when the majority of countries are teaming up in the production of major systems such as the US-led Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) project, in which Turkey is also a participant.
The end result of overly ambitious programs will be negative effects on the Turkish economy and the risk that the TSK may be left with few alternatives in meeting its real needs.
Murad Bayar, head of the Undersecretariat for the Defense Industry (SSM), recently claimed that the Turkish defense sector would overcome the effects of the global economic crisis through the development of technology and an increase in defense exports.
This would appear to be not just exaggerated analysis, but over-confidence, given the current state of the local defense industry. The sector's future trends are not that promising. In addition, exports have become difficult as markets worldwide are contracting due to the global crisis.
According to figures from the SSM, Turkish defense industry exports stood at about $420 million in 2007. Now the target is for it to reach $1 billion by 2010. This figure alone shows how unrealistic Bayar is in asserting that the defense sector can overcome the economic crisis through the development of technology and exports.
How can the Turkish defense sector not be affected by the economic crisis when even the world's leading defense industries are feeling the heat?
If the economy is affected by the crisis, so then is the defense sector -- if not today, then tomorrow. It is unavoidable that the sector will be affected by the crisis even if a big portion of the national budget is earmarked for defense.
In an interview with the Milliyet daily on Dec. 23, Professor Oktay Yenal suggested that any responsible government would implement money-saving measures in the purchase of goods such as official cars, tanks, aircraft and arms as a means of tackling the economic crisis.
Instead, on Dec. 27 Parliament reduced the budget allocations of most ministries, excluding the Defense Ministry, by up to 16 percent to cut overall spending as the country seeks a loan deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
This signals that both the government and the opposition parties bowed to the pressures of the military while the country was already been suffering from misuse of government funds.
But, at the end of the day, even if procurement officials attempt to portray a positive picture despite the economic crisis, the defense sector will be affected. Perhaps to reduce this possible effect, a less ambitious arms development perspective may replace the current one.
