Both the CHP convention and the Iraqi elections did not pass off without incidents; they passed off with controversies. The Iraqi society is not familiar with multi-party elections. They had gone to the polls for many years in order to approve the policies of the Baath Party.
Developments that do not befit the spirit of democracy and that perturb Turkey, occurred during the election process. These also cast a shadow over the elections and prevented them from being held in a healthy manner. Northern Iraq set the stage for Kurdish emigrations. The demographic structure of Kerkuk (Kirkuk) has changed. Even though the United States had declared many times before that it would not allow the demographic structure in Kirkuk to be changed, it was just an onlooker to the developments. It did not take Turkey's objections in this regard into account.
Boycotting the elections, the Sunni Arabs did not go to the polls. The turnout was low. It is not easy for the elections that ought to have been a stage to restructure Iraq and for the country to gain stability, to attain the desired goal. The polls have already brought new debates along with them. It seems what will be experienced during this process will be a matter of further antagonisms.
Strictly speaking, the arena has been left completely to Kurdish groups and Shiites. Turkmens and Sunni Arabs have virtually been excluded from the Iraqi administration. As a result of the controversial votes in Northern Iraq, Kurdish parties gained absolute majority. The Turkmens remained weak, and because the Arabs in the region did not go to the polls, Turkey's was left empty-handed. This is because the two are elements of segments of the Iraqi society that Turkey has been focusing on the most from the very beginning.
It is not easy for a new administration, that does not embrace all the elements, to become successful. There are some Kurdish leaders who have already declared themselves victorious, however, results are not clear yet. Votes cast under the shadow of the gun cannot be expected to be counted in a short time. It is said that the results will be announced within 10 days.
The results that will emerge from the ballot box are more or less certain. Because the other element was excluded, Shiite and Kurdish groups will share the administration. These two groups will be accountable to Iraq henceforward. This is the reality, a picture Turkey has never liked. We have to confess that we stepped out of the equation, step by step, since the rejection of the deployment motion on March 1 2003, and this was made official through the elections.
Turkey does not have a place in the Iraq equation. Frankly speaking, preserving and securing its interests in the region seems difficult. The developments in Iraq were on the political agenda yesterday. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke harshly with regards to the United States while addressing deputies during a group meeting. Referring the U. S., he said: "The powers that say they have come to the region in order to establish democracy, prefer to remain insensitive to anti-democratic ambitions."
These remarks by the prime minister, who emphasized that Turkey is concerned about the developments in the region, are very important: "Everyone should know that Turkey will not allow this geography, that it is bound not only by historical ties, but also through conjugal bonds, be dragged into chaos that will last for so many years."
Those these remarks are addressed to are both elements inside Iraq and the U. S. The expression, "We will not allow" means that Turkey will intervene in the developments. In what form would that be? It is apparent that Ankara will exert its authority through diplomacy, besides, this remark also includes an alternative to the use of force.
Apparently, Iraq will be the hottest topic in the upcoming days. It has more than enough indicators. Who knows? Maybe the region that has turned into a quagmire, which even the United States is having a hard time getting out, might be a stage for developments that will drag Turkey inside as well. Turkey does not enjoy the luxury of standing aloof, even if it wants so. If it enters the scene, and if others determine the conditions, this however would carry great risks and dangers.
February 2, 2005
