As the country prepares for the local elections scheduled for March 29 of next year, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has ironically furthered its anti-reformist stance with the hope of emerging on top in the local elections in a country where nationalist fervor has been on the rise.
Some steps taken lately by Turkey as part of its reforms, such as addressing the problems of the country's Alevis, are not considered genuine attempts at improving the country but rather as sweets being distributed before the elections.
"This new Alevi policy does not stem from a deep conviction that this problem should be addressed," asserts a Western diplomat, hinting that they are not convinced about this latest move.
Such steps, seen as window dressing or an election tactic, have been deepening the conviction among pro-Turkey Europeans that Ankara does not desire membership in the European Union.
The current anti-reform climate in Turkey has further eroded Ankara's already fading interest in joining the EU.
It is then safe to predict that it will be very hard for Turkey to come up with tangible reforms in the year 2009. Partly because it does not seem possible for the AK Party to come up with bold reforms -- such as the introduction of a brand new Constitution to replace the military-dictated 1982 Constitution -- just after the local elections since it will be busy tackling the results of the elections, whether they turn out in favor of the party or against it.
The absence of support from opposition parties for constitutional reforms that would open a new page in Turkey in promoting a more pluralistic society will make it more difficult for the ruling party to come up with bold and courageous reforms next year.
A second, and perhaps equally important, reason for predictions that 2009 will be a bad year for Turkish-EU relations is the Cyprus issue and Turkey's refusal to comply with the Ankara Protocol, which requires opening its ports and airports to all EU member countries without exception.
Turkey does not recognize the Greek Cypriot administration on the divided island as a state even though it joined the EU in 2004 representing the whole island. Thus Ankara refuses to comply with the protocol in relation to Cyprus, prompting the EU to suspend negotiations on several chapters before opening several others last year.
Next year in November, the EU will review the Ankara Protocol and will take a position depending on whether or not Turkey has opened its ports to the Greek Cypriot administration.
"We, as EU members, do not expect Turkey to comply with the Ankara Protocol unless there is going to be a breakthrough in peace talks between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders," said an Ankara-based EU diplomat.
The Cyprus reunification talks are tied up with Turkey's already troubled EU membership. But ongoing talks between the leaders of both communities in Cyprus have not given any clue promising a breakthrough in those negotiations.
Worsening these problems is the economic crisis Europe is currently going through and its impact on the Turkish economy since over half of Ankara's trade has been with EU countries.
An analysis of Turkey from an economic perspective paints a bleak picture of Turkey's future if it does not take the necessary measures swiftly to address internal economic and political problems to minimize the effects of outside shocks as much as possible.
Dr. Ian O. Lesser, from the German Marshall Fund of the United States, noted in a recent article titled "Turkey and the Global Economic Crisis" that Turkey's EU candidacy is already troubled, with little prospect for improvement in the near term.
"A deep and prolonged recession in Europe could further complicate Turkish relations with Europe. Job losses and financial stress in Europe could reinforce existing concerns over immigration and the costs of future large-scale enlargements. A poorer Europe may also be a more xenophobic Europe, with obvious and negative implications for Turkey's European aspirations. Even those European politicians willing to exercise leadership on Ankara's behalf may find themselves distracted by more pressing economic and social challenges. The business constituency for Turkey may be similarly distracted and limited in its ability to make the case for completing Turkey's European project. An atmosphere of heightened nationalism on all sides will also make a Cyprus settlement much more difficult, and ultimately, this is a sine qua non for progress toward full membership," he asserts.
Despite the negative internal trends coupled with the expected results of the global economic crisis, Turkey can find a way out if it acts quickly in addressing its problems in all spheres.
