The terrorist attacks that paralyzed Mumbai last week occurred at a delicate time when India and Pakistan, two hostile and nuclear-armed nations, were slowly moving toward improved relations. The terrorist tactic in Mumbai -- simultaneous assaults on "soft" targets designed to kill large numbers of civilians -- suggests that it was inspired by al-Qaeda. This is deeply worrying for India, which until recently thought itself immune to radical Islamist terrorism. But in reality, the Muslim population of India increasingly looks to be fertile ground because of the Kashmir dispute and socio-economic factors. India's Muslims fare on average worse than the Hindu majority in education, jobs and income. And Muslims have occasionally been subjected to massive violence. More than 2,000 died in a pogrom in the state of Gujarat in 2002, for which the perpetrators have never been brought to justice. That pogrom followed allegations that a Muslim mob had been responsible for the deaths of Hindu activists.
This highlights one of the dangers facing India now: a rise in communal tension and tit-for-tat violence. Yet, the Mumbai attacks also seem to differ from most previous Islamist ones in the sophistication of its planning and the selection of foreigners as targets: Hostage-takers seem to have sought out American, British and Israeli victims. If India finds Pakistani fingerprints on this bloody operation, not only will the fledgling dynamics of peace between the two neighbors quickly come to an end, but the region could face a new war.
Needless to say, such a development would be a nightmare for Washington because the main goal of US foreign policy in Pakistan over the last few years has been to persuade the military and the intelligence services to focus more on its lawless tribal regions -- where Osama bin Laden is believed to be hiding and the Taliban is gaining ground -- and less on Kashmir and India, an issue that is ripping at the soul of Pakistan.
In past terrorist attacks, India has often blamed its Muslim neighbor. There are early signs that India, where local elections are scheduled next weekend, is taking a similar line. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said the attacks probably had "external" links and were carried out by a group "based outside the country." He quickly added that there would be "a cost to neighbors if their territory was found to have been used as a launching pad." According to many sources in the country, Indian security agencies believe the multiple attacks in Mumbai were organized by an Islamic militant group, Lashkar-e-Taiba, operating out of Pakistan.
According to Bruce Riedel, Obama's adviser on South Asia, al-Qaeda worked with the Pakistani intelligence agency in the late 1980s to create Lashkar-e-Taiba as a jihadist group intended to challenge Indian rule in Kashmir. In such circumstances, the usual suspect in the eyes of Washington and New Delhi is Pakistan's main intelligence agency, the infamous Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), which is believed to act like a state within the state. If India and the United States discover that the Pakistani intelligence agency is connected to rogue elements of the jihadist group, it will be extremely difficult for Washington to stop an Indian retaliation. After all, any hint of a military mobilization by the Indians will give the Pakistani military the excuse it wants to shift forces away from its western border areas and back to its eastern border.
In fact, given Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari's recent overtures to India, this may have been the motivation of whoever carried out the attacks. Days before the Mumbai attacks, Zardari proposed a "no first nuclear strike" policy with India. The idea probably came as a shock to the Pakistani army, which has always refused to commit to a policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. In the same speech, Zardari said went even further and argued that South Asia should be a nuclear-weapon-free zone, which could be achieved by a "non-nuclear treaty." These are certainly admirable goals. But Zardari will need the full support of the Pakistani security apparatus to deliver. Last week's tragedy shows that full peace between India and Pakistan may very well prove elusive in the short run.
