As "Obamamania" slowly dwindles, more people will probably face the grim realities of what Mr. Obama is inheriting from the Bush administration. Turkey's concerns are about both its bilateral relations and its larger regional policies. In his visit to Washington, D.C., last week, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said it is too risky to give a definitive timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq. This was the first mild criticism of Mr. Obama, who had promised a pullout within the first 16 months of his presidency. Despite the appearance of relative calm and security, Iraq is faced with enormous political and social problems. The fragile security situation could easily deteriorate into chaos. Obama will have to develop a better long-term strategy other than withdrawing US troops. The question is: What kind of a political, legal and military structure will be put in place in Iraq after the amount of American troops is sharply reduced?
This concerns Turkey directly. But there are other issues. Ever since his statement that he will sit with Iran and talk, Obama has been hardening his discourse on Iran. A bad start with Iran will be a bad start in the region. Obama's engagement or disengagement with Iran will send a message about the tone and nature of Obama's Middle East policy. While every single country in the region is against Iran going nuclear, there are ways of securing it without bullying other countries in the region. Ankara will be closely following the opening lines of Obama's policy towards Iran.
Another issue of immediate concern is the claim of genocide in Armenia. Turkish-American relations are too important to be reduced to the Armenian issue. But it does matter socially and psychologically. Even a hint by Obama of endorsing the genocide claims will poison relations. That's why many Turks are concerned about next April, when this issue will come up again. If Obama, Pelosi or another ranking member of the Democratic Party gives the green light to the genocide claims, it will force Turkey to revise its partnership with US on a number of key regional issues including Iraq and Afghanistan. No government in Turkey will be able to sell a strategic partnership or an alliance with the US to the Turkish people if such a resolution were to be passed in the US Senate.
This will be catastrophic for the relations between Ankara and Yerevan and stop all diplomatic communication between the two countries. Over the last few months, a breakthrough has been made, and Turkey and Armenia have started talking to one another. The Azeris have also joined the conversation, which is extremely important. The backdoor diplomacy and behind-the-scenes negotiations are likely to produce some concrete results in the first half of 2009. We may see some unprecedented moves by both sides before long. All of this momentum will be lost if the genocide issue is given any prominence in Washington under Obama's presidency.
Many Turks see Obama as a chance for the US and the world. They also see him as a new beginning for US-Turkish relations. Some believe Obama will be the best antidote to anti-Americanism in Turkey and the wider Muslim world. Let's hope the Obama presidency does not squander this historic opportunity.
