With this policy, Moscow has had the opportunity to become active in the former Soviet territories, named the Near Abroad, for the first time since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. In fact, Russia is the only power that has dominated the Caucasus region in the last two centuries (the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union). Russians have always determined the borders and political, cultural and educational infrastructure in the region.While Russians know the Caucasus well, the US and the EU are two big global powers unfamiliar with the region. However, despite the fact that the Euro-Atlantic world does not know the region, it has preferred to expand in the Caucasus in disfavor of Moscow, just as it did in the former Eastern Bloc countries following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Throughout the last 17 years, countries in the Southern Caucasus became close allies with the EU and NATO. They became members in the Council of Europe. The countries in the region were further included in the EU's Neighborhood Policy. In Tbilisi, which has been the center of the Southern Caucasus since the time of the Russian Empire, pro-Western Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili acquired political power in 2004; subsequently, he turned to the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) to become a full member in April 2008.
The political expansion of the Euro-Atlantic world that started in December 1991 ceased in August 2008. While the Russian Federation has pursued a proactive stance vis-à-vis the region since August, the Euro-Atlantic world remained silent and paralyzed, and looked like a bystander to the developments. The Euro-Atlantic world, which has taken unilateral steps and imposed those steps since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, failed to adequately respond to Moscow's new attitudes and policies as regards the Southern Caucasus. However, it started to abandon this state of silence and inaction in September; in an attempt to support Georgia in the Southern Caucasus, the Euro-Atlantic world has been seeking ways to ensure rapprochement with Armenia. To this end, some steps were taken to ensure that Armenia has good ties with the West over Turkey.
On Sept. 6, Turkish President Abdullah Gül accepted an invitation by Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan and watched a soccer game between the Turkish and Armenian national teams in Yerevan. Talks were started to reopen border gates that have for long remained closed between Armenia and Turkey. In this way, the Euro-Atlantic world seeks to extend support to Georgia via Armenia and thereby increased its support for the pro-Western Sarksyan government.
To this end, Georgia will be granted a total sum of 3.4 billion euros in the form of economic aid to preserve stability. However, the Euro-Atlantic world made the biggest mistake by supporting the Saakashvili government rather than Georgia. The mistake the Americans have been making in Latin America for decades was repeated in Georgia. That is to say, a mistake was committed when the government aligning with their policies instead of the people of the country was supported and promoted. And so Washington initiated a process of Latin Americanization in Georgia. However, what the Georgian people and intellectuals actually want is the Europeanization of their country. Georgians dream of an EU member Georgia where parliamentary democracy is fully institutionalized. They do not want a Latin American dictatorship serving American interests in the Southern Caucasus. Taking a stance from the perspective of Saakashvili in the Southern Caucasus did nothing but strengthen the Russian Federation in the region.
So, new approaches and perspectives are required. A new Georgia with precise boundaries is needed. A Georgia still unable to resolve the Abkhazian and South Ossetian problems will not be able to serve as a reliable energy and transport conduit stretching from the east to the west. For this reason, a new pro-Western leader who is able to maintain balanced relations with the Russian Federation, open the path of his country by giving up Georgian rights over Abkhazia and South Ossetia and ultimately accelerate integration with the EU and NATO is needed in Georgia. Meanwhile, the EU and the US are now reconsidering their policies vis-à-vis Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Despite the fact that Saakashvili is demanding harsh and hawkish policies in these regions, the Euro-Atlantic world is readying to maintain ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia with particular reference to human rights and trade opportunities.
In conclusion, surprises should be expected in the Southern Caucasus in 2009. Radical changes are highly likely in the Georgia-Abkhazia-South Ossetia and Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan areas.
