Expectations of Obama are high not only regarding the outcome of the election, but also about the aftermath both at home and abroad. And that will probably be the biggest challenge he and his prospective administration face. In Turkey, however, thanks to his staunch support for the Armenian genocide lobby, expectations are relatively low, especially in some influential segments of the society, that Obama would be a favorable US president. Many Turkish strategy makers think Obama might actually utter the "G" word while in the White House and/or let the Democratic Congress pass an Armenian-backed resolution.
I believe, if used intelligently, these fears about Obama which lower Turkish expectations can be turned into a plus for Turkish-American relations. Imagine what would happen if he pleasantly surprises Turks. I can tell you that every knowledgeable person I talk to in Washington says Obama will not do the "G" thing.
This was one topic that came up during a discussion at a successful conference on Turkey organized by the Brookings Institution's Center on the United States and Europe and the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) in Washington on Tuesday.
The keynote speaker was influential Turkish government advisor Professor Ahmet Davudoğlu, and Turkey-related panel discussions attracted hundreds of listeners. Some participants went on the record as saying they don't expect that Obama will do "G" recognition. When asked what would happen if the next US administration is supportive of the genocide lobby's initiatives, Justice and Development Party (AK Party) deputy Suat Kınıklıoğlu put it bluntly: "Forget partnership." Kınıklıoğlu later explained that he does not necessarily endorse ending the partnership between the US and Turkey, but he offered his prediction that relations will not remain undamaged if such a thing were to happen.
No matter how idealistic Obama sounds, the realities of running the US will probably hamper his agenda of change. As a keen observer whom I respect told me, the US is like a big vessel, and it's not easy to change its direction so quickly. It's probably true for the Armenian issue as well. The US foreign policy establishment has always been opposed to the idea of alienating Turkey. Obama will need Turkey perhaps at least as much as his predecessors. Plus, at a time when the US is concentrating on winning back lost allies and friends, who would want to put relatively normalized relations with Turkey on the line again?
It all depends on whether Obama knows how to read strategic maps. Can he really appreciate what Turkey represents? Even if he does not yet, he will be able to do so if he listens carefully to the people around him. I don't see anyone in Obama's potential foreign affairs team who would not tell him the peril of losing or failing to win Turkey over. Can the Obama administration come up with an original Turkey policy, not a derivative one, as some of the participants rightly advocated in Tuesday's conference? The "big vessel" factor would most likely prevent them from making a large policy shift, but I expect them to be more engaged.
Problem-solving energy on the part of both Ankara and Washington should not be consumed by secondary issues like the Armenian genocide debate. There is potential for friction on more serious issues. How will the US and Turkey manage Obama's ambitious withdrawal plan from Iraq and its impact on the region, not to mention the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) threat? How will they manage the fact that Turkey has become a more direct player in the Iran nuclear issue now that Ankara has won temporary UN Security Council membership? What would be the implications of Obama's more assertive and unilateral military approach to dealing with the threat of terror emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan, two close friends of Turkey? How would the US and Turkey manage relations with Russia and Georgia?
This list can certainly grow. These are serious issues which need more than just political commitment and a good working relationship. They require political chemistry between leaders of both countries. I hope a way can be found for Obama to meet with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan when he comes to the US in the middle of November. No doubt it would also be good if Obama could have a chance to visit Turkey in the early stages of his presidency.
I'm sure he doesn't know much about Turkey, and it would be nice if he learned without stepping on any mines.
