And so the second era of İlham Aliyev begins. This election was the sixth since Azerbaijan became independent following the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. Aliyev, 46, began to rule Azerbaijan, a primary energy supplier with a population of 8 million, after his father, Haydar Aliyev, died in 2003. He competed against five opponents -- none of whom was regarded as a true rival.
The election was held under the scrutiny of 28 long-term and 450 short-term observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), including 20 short-term observers from Turkey, 398 observers (including 23 long-term observers) from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and 26 deputies of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). No notable problem was reported.
There were many firsts in the election, including allowing the monitoring of the voting process on the Internet through cameras fixed to about 10 percent of voting centers. The ODIHR observers concluded the following: “Elections marked considerable progress ... but did not meet all commitments. The election process ... was characterized by a lack of robust competition. ... There were procedural shortcomings ... especially with regard to counting ... and tabulation.” ODIHR observers, while criticizing the election with respect to bans on rallies by the opposition or forcing students and public servants to attend pro-Aliyev rallies, described it as the most democratic election held in Azerbaijan in the post-Soviet era.
The country’s top five opposition parties boycotted the election, saying they were not provided with the opportunity to freely conduct their campaigns and that independent media organizations were closed while opponents were imprisoned. The Equality Party, regarded as the most powerful opposition party in the country, announced its decision, made on Aug. 2, 2008 at the Party Council, to not run in the elections. The party’s leader, speaking at the council’s meeting, said conditions were not suitable and that the best option was to boycott the election.
The other important opposition bloc, the Azadlık -- comprising the Popular Front Party, the Liberal Party and the Citizens’ Development Party -- also announced it would boycott the election. Due to this boycott from opposition parties and a lack of real competition, the campaign period, which officially began on Sept. 17, 2008, was considerably free of vibrancy. Voters showed limited interest in the campaigns of presidential candidates and there was no enthusiasm going into the election. The ruling New Azerbaijan Party (YAP), led by Aliyev, conducted an active election campaign with the slogan “Forward with İlham” while the campaigns of other candidates were considerably dull. The opposition accuses Western countries of not pressuring Aliyev for democratic reforms and says the reason for this is that Western countries do not want to lose out on oil-rich Azerbaijan’s resources.
Although the EU relies greatly on Azerbaijan, even if its reserves are not sufficient to fill the pipelines in the Nabucco project, the Georgian crisis changed the way Baku sees Moscow. After the August 2008 Georgian crisis, Azerbaijan realized that energy lines passing through Georgia will never be fully reliable until the Abkhazia and South Ossetia issues are completely solved. For this reason, Baku has positioned itself closer to Moscow, although it does not intend to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), formed by the Russian Federation as a counter to NATO.
Azerbaijan, 85 percent of whose exports consist of oil and natural gas, has increased the volume of oil it sends to the Russian Federation and also attempted to sell oil to Iran. Moreover, Baku is getting worried as it sees Turkey and Armenia becoming closer politically. In his new term, Aliyev will have to reconsider Azerbaijan’s relations with Moscow, Yerevan and Ankara.
