It currently produces about 70 billion cubic meters of gas annually and plans to extract 80 billion cubic meters in 2008 and 1.25 billion cubic meters by 2015. At present, Turkmenistan consumes some 19-20 billion cubic meters of gas each year domestically. Its export commitments are substantial, with Russia being the number one customer at 50 billion cubic meters, followed by Iran with 8 billion cubic meters. Furthermore, Turkmenistan is also committed to supplying up to 40 billion cubic meters annually to China through a pipeline currently under construction that will be put into service in 2009 if everything goes as planned. The European Union has also been very keen to receive Turkmen gas and has been promised 10 billion cubic meters by the Turkmen government through an undersea pipeline to be built in the future, bringing supplies which will certainly decrease European dependency on Russian gas.
However, over the past few years these substantial commitments have led to the emergence of lingering uncertainties and serious concerns with regards to the real size of the country's reserves, fueling fears that Turkmenistan had overcommitted its gas and might face difficulties in fulfilling its pledges.
The late Turkmen leader Saparmurat Niyazov never tried to dispel those concerns and fears by allowing a full, independent audit of Turkmenistan's gas wealth by a reputable and trusted Western firm. That omission or neglect was quickly rectified by his successor, current President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, who awarded a contract to British consultancy company Gaffney, Cline and Associates (GCA) to assess Turkmen gas reserves in March of this year. GCA had some earlier experience auditing Turkmen oil and gas reserves, but the data obtained were never disclosed. A major leader in auditing gas and oil reserves worldwide, the GCA stands out in reservoir engineering, exploration and evaluation of oil and gas deposits and thus is considered to be a reliable company.
This week GCA presented the first results of its audit of Turkmen gas reserves. According to its research and survey, the South Yoloten-Osman deposits, situated in the southeast of the country, contain 4 trillion cubic meters of gas as a low estimate, 6 trillion as a best estimate and 14 trillion cubic meters as a high estimate. The 6 trillion estimate would make the South Yoloten-Osman field the fourth or fifth-richest gas deposit in the world, according to GCA.
At the same time, the new field also far outranks the very well-known giant Turkmen Dauletabad gas field. The Dauletabad (Devletabad) was previously believed to be the largest gas field in Turkmenistan with some 1.4 trillion cubic meters. Most of Turkmenistan's export commitments are based on Dauletabad being the major contributor.
In addition, GCA cites 1.5 trillion cubic meters of gas as its best estimate in Turkmenistan's Yastar field. Of course, these results are from the first stage of GCA's research and survey, which will cover other prospective Turkmen gas fields in later stages, and who knows if larger reserves might also be discovered, making Turkmenistan more powerful in the global gas arena.
Needless to say, the first results of the GCA audit, which Turkmen leader Berdimuhammedov wisely initiated, will have far-reaching and important implications for both Turkmenistan and the world and will likely intensify the competition between the West and Russia over Turkmen gas, eventually changing the overall strategic gas picture in the future.
