It was always going to be difficult for John McCain to win. After all, only once in the past 50 years has a party been awarded three consecutive terms in the White House. And that was in 1988, when Bush Sr. won after Ronald Reagan's two terms. The economy was strong and the president was still popular. Neither hold true today, and last week's important rise in unemployment figures provided another reminder of why Obama has moved so clearly into the lead in the past three weeks.It is therefore time for countries like Turkey to get used to the idea of an Obama presidency. According to opinion polls taken over the last few months in Turkey, the majority of Turks support Obama as the next US president. This is not surprising, given the dismal image of the Bush administration in the country. What is more surprising, however, is that such warm feelings for Obama and the Democrats are probably not shared by the Turkish state. What makes some segments of the Turkish leadership so apprehensive about Obama? There are at least three factors. Let us briefly look at them before analyzing their validity.
The first and most obvious one is Barack Obama's commitment to the Armenian diaspora. Obama declared that under his administration Washington would recognize the massacres of 1915 as "genocide." Just like in the case of the Arab world that can't help but look at the United States through the prism of the Palestinian issue, the Armenian question has come to symbolize the Turkish governments' main preoccupation with Washington. The Armenian issue is now the litmus test of being a "friend of Turkey" or an "enemy."
The second reason why the Turkish leadership probably prefers McCain is because the Turkish security establishment is always more comfortable with like-minded Republicans. There is a deeply rooted Turkish perception that Republicans are more appreciative of Turkey's geo-strategic importance. This is largely a byproduct of security issues dominating bilateral relations. Defense companies are Turkey's best friends in Washington, and they tend to have better relations with Republicans. After all, when Democrats are in charge, military-to-military issues have a higher chance of being clouded by human rights issues.
And finally there is Iraq. Many within the Turkish government believe that Washington should stay in Iraq for as long as it takes. McCain wants that too, but Obama has made clear that he favors a timetable for departure. There is a Turkish perception that Obama will cut and run. And once Americans are out, mayhem will follow. A sectarian war followed by Kurdish independence is Turkey's nightmare in Iraq.
As a result of these three factors, McCain appears to be a safer bet for Ankara. This is truly unfortunate and shortsighted. In fact an Obama administration would be much better not only for Turkish-American relations, but also for the US's global image. There are at least four reasons why Obama would be better than McCain for Turkey.
The first and most obvious is the fact that McCain has a dangerous neoconservative mindset. A war between Iran and America or a military confrontation between Moscow and Washington is much more likely under his administration than under Obama. Does Ankara really want that on its borders?
Second, Obama will restore America's "soft power" and global standing in the world and in transatlantic relations. This is hugely important because like Clinton, Obama will lobby on Turkey's behalf with the Europeans. Obama will improve America's relations with Europe. With a bellicose McCain, the opposite would happen. Do you think Europeans will listen to McCain when he lobbies for Turkey? Not likely. But Europe listened to Clinton in 1999 and will do the same with Obama.
Third, Obama will actually work with foreign policy advisors who appreciate Turkey's importance. McCain's foreign policy team has no expertise on Turkey. It is extremely shortsighted for Ankara to look at Obama exclusively through the prism of the Armenian issue. In any case, Turkey's recent opening to Armenia is likely to change the whole equation in Washington.
And finally, Obama will be better for the Middle East. Unlike Bush and Mc Cain, Obama is open to dialogue. Washington will not leave Iraq prematurely under Obama. In fact the Obama campaign has repeatedly warned that America will have to be as careful in getting out of Iraq as it has been reckless in getting in. The Turkish people rightly admire Obama. So should Ankara, by looking at the larger picture instead of just the Armenian issue.
