I recall a particular meeting that took place in Vienna's town hall in 1986. We discussed Europe's future from a youth perspective and how he in particular as a potential leader of the new and power-hungry generation could shape it. At the time, Austria's EU membership had still not been voted upon by the European Community (EC), and there was this notion being felt in Austria that the then "EC of 12" was a club of rich nations rather than a peacemaking force with social dimensions. During meetings with other Austrian representatives I realized that Austria was much more interested in East-West cooperation and staying "neutral," although within the framework of the UN and the Council of Europe. This was the future chancellor's viewpoint, too. I defended my notion of "deepening the EC first, enlarging it later." The fall of the Berlin Wall and newly emerging geopolitical considerations, coupled with Austria's belief that by becoming an EC member its influence in the Balkans would be cemented, changed perceptions. Austria joined in 1995.Austria is a perfect example for the thesis that enlarging the EU first and deepening it afterwards cannot work. EU membership does not change people, their views or their worries. It does not turn far-right activists into peaceful advocates of European integration. It does not turn nations that are in principle anti-cosmopolitan into advocates of globalization.
Using the German example is a wrong comparison: Germany turned democratic because it lost World War II, and the Allies simply made it clear that either it would become an agrarian nation or would get the chance to redevelop its industries. In other words: Morgenthau or Marshall. Point taken: It became the model nation for democratic and economic development. The European Economic Community (EEC, now EU) did not convert Germans into peace-loving citizens -- sheer economic pressures did, as well as the fact that the US needed a bulwark against a new and perceived as dangerous Eastern Bloc -- welcome to "Cold War Monopoly." In 1955 West Germans got their army back; what a fast-track approach to re-establishing democracy!
Last weekend's elections underline that Austria apparently always had a latent anti-democratic element within the public vote. Now that it has re-emerged, what are the lessons for both the EU and Turkey? Have domestic or EU policies failed?
First, election thresholds must be cleverly managed. While a certain percentage of far right or far left-wing parties in any given legislature may add spice, it has to be said that if they can win majorities the country is at odds with being a member of the EU, period. The difficult point is whether we simply want to know how many citizens vote anti-democracy or whether we really wish to see them sitting in our parliaments.
An imaginary nationalist country outside the EU -- in particular, one without any military might and, let's say, for four to eight years only -- would be nothing more than a footnote in history. However, an EU member state governed by either extreme right or left parties would be a real threat to the common values of the EU and would need to be treated as such.
Second, Turkey should closely monitor regional and national elections in other European countries. Sidelining countries based on voter preference is wrong. Come the next EU budget in 2014 European and Turkish cleavages will not have changed fundamentally. The EU did not shut its doors because there was a domestic political crisis in Turkey. Ankara should not shut its doors against Vienna, either. However, clear maximum levels of tolerance must be formulated. It is too early to judge how Austria will be governed in six years. Nevertheless, the elections sent shockwaves through Brussels. But didn't Brussels know about Austrian's political preferences way back in 1994? No one can tell me that EU spin doctors do not know why a specific state wishes to join, drop out or stay out. Likewise, they know which state they wish to have inside and which ones to keep at bay.
I argue that as long as Vienna can maintain a stronghold in the Balkans and have even more new EU member states from that region accepted by the other 26, Vienna will more easily digest Turkey's full membership, too. Ankara needs to employ skillful diplomacy; Ankara holds most of the cards.
