Cyprus reminds us that in politics, as in life in general, there is the past, the present and the future. The time has come for closing the chapter that is called Greek Cypriot-Turkish animosities and establishing a state-of-the-art platform for a future, peaceful solution. Everything is possible in politics -- just recall German reunification or the end of terror and violence in Northern Ireland. Let me elaborate on two matters; first, why the EU made a grave mistake by allowing a non-unified Cyprus to enter the bloc, and second, why Turkey should lead the way and show the world that its pro-EU leaders are capable of forgiving. Turkey in 2008 is no longer the Turkey of 1974, neither is Greece or Cyprus.Before the EU "mini-enlargement" including Austria in the mid-1990s, it was commonly believed in Brussels that if ever another enlargement were to take place, two nations would have a guaranteed seat at the EU table: Malta and, of course, Cyprus. This was due to a number of reasons, in particular the historic ties with the United Kingdom, their small populations and the relative prosperity of both island states. Even anti-enlargement circles bowed to the pressure as exercised by "a wider Europe first," a lobby in the EU. However, it took another 12 years or so until both Malta and Cyprus could join. The Cyprus dilemma -- the south rejecting the Annan plan, the north voting in favor of it -- should have shown Brussels that only a unified Cyprus should join.
As is more often the case than not when it comes to so-called EU foreign policies, this time no one in Brussels took account of the reality in the northern part of the island. A bold but perhaps more correct decision would have been to freeze Cypriot membership, or allowing the north in first and then the south once unified -- but certainly not the other way around. The EU has its fair share of responsibility for the ongoing conflict on the island. Pro-EU northern islanders were punished by the acceptance of anti-unification southern islanders into the bloc. What a strange form of enlargement!
But as long as the EU this time steers clear of too much involvement and accepts the renewed efforts by both Cypriot leaders as well as the UN, there is a real chance for a unified Cyprus this time around. What the EU can do is to provide much increased pre-accession budget lines and technical assistance, including reversing the commercial isolation of the north. It must, of course, keep the south happy, too; measuring the positive impacts of unification could help convince the anti-unification lobby in the south.
Turkey for its part must announce without delay that it heralds a "one Cyprus" policy and should start internal discussions over whether the number of military troops currently stationed on the island will be appropriate come unification, as fears regarding violent attacks from the south will soon be buried forever. Perhaps a reduced contingent staying for a transition period of five to seven years -- up until the time when Turkey itself will hopefully join the bloc -- makes strategic as well as political sense. Turkey will benefit greatly from having northern Cyprus in the EU. Turkish citizens will see that the EU, outside of its common foreign and security policy, works extremely well. The unified island will become the window to the world, countering "accession talk fatigue'' on the mainland. Turkey can only gain from a unified Cyprus.
Hence, a six-way win-win situation will emerge: Turkey likely will have removed the last serious obstacle in its way to restarting the engine for a fast-track EU accession; the northern part of Cyprus will benefit from all EU acquis-related freedoms; the island as such will become a role model for democracy (and see increased levels of foreign direct investment); and Greece, well, Greece will have shown statesmanship by supporting democratic processes to the southeast. Add the EU -- heaving a sigh of relief that one of their more serious "foreign" policy mistakes has been resolved -- as well as the UN in its reassumed role as peace broker, and it becomes clear that we will be witnessing historic events.
