While some hold that Turkey will contribute a great deal to the EU, others argue that Turkey's membership will be disruptive to EU integration and for this reason is not a reasonable option. The opponents or advocates with reservations are large in number and speak out loudly.It is possible to say that the opponents to Turkey's EU membership have five major objections:
1) Population: It is generally held that Turkey's large population, which exceeds 70 million, will pose an important problem. To this end, considering its population growth rate Turkey's population will become equal to that of Germany. With its increased population, Turkey will be one of the countries that will send the highest number of commissioners to the commission and deputies to the European Parliament in the near future. In other words, Turkey will become one of the most important and determinative actors in the decision-making mechanisms of the EU.
2) Geographical location: Only 3 percent of its territories are part of Europe, whereas the remaining 97 percent are on the Asian continent. In addition, some argue that the EU will have to share borders with Syria, Iraq and Iran in the event of Turkey's admission. Edmund Stoiber, former chancellor of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), says: "The EU's border cannot be the Turkish-Iraqi border. If Turkey becomes a member of the EU, countries like Tunisia and Morocco will also want to follow the same path."
3) Agriculture: While agricultural employment is around 3-4 percent in EU countries, this figure is around 40 percent in Turkey. It is held that there will be important problems regarding the implementation of the union's Common Agricultural Policy. To this end, the EU will have to allocate large sums of funds to Turkey as agricultural subsidies.
4) Political structure: It is also believed that Turkey needs to make further progress even though it has demonstrated impressive performance in meeting the Copenhagen criteria. It does not seem possible to argue that improvements in regards to the military's influence over politics, freedom of expression and education in mother tongues are sufficient to take Turkey to EU membership.
5) Religion-culture: Conservative circles and Christian Democrats in particular hold that as Turkey is a predominantly Muslim country, it cannot be part of European culture. They assert that the "Judeo-Christian religions" and the "Greco-Roman culture" are two major elements of European culture. The Enlightenment relied on these constituents. There is no contribution from Turkey or Islamic culture to the emergence of these two major components.
Europe's Christian identity and Turkey's Muslim population inevitably bring the issue of religion to the fore. Undoubtedly, there are some circles within Europe that do not pay attention to this factor. Liberals, Socialists, Greens and a substantial segment of Social Democrats hold that the EU is not based on religious solidarity or unity. They further recall that Turkey will not disrupt Europe's religious harmony; according to this group of optimists, Turkey's membership may even lead to the emergence of a model pluralist framework for modern times. The EU is essentially a union of standards and criteria. Whoever complies with these criteria and standards may become a member to it.
Is the issue of religion an obstacle? This has not been adequately discussed. There are some groups such as the liberals of Europe who see Turkey's membership -- which has a large Muslim population -- as some kind of an assurance of their existence, as the organization will not be a solely Christian structure. They hold that if the EU some day is transformed into an organization with a strong emphasis on Christianity this will reinforce the clash of civilizations thesis and create problems for those who do not pay particular importance to religion in daily life. For instance, it will be difficult to say that atheists or groups with a certain sexual orientation will lead a comfortable life in a "religious Europe."
