However, the four scenarios put forward by those who rightfully oppose the party's closure are not based on sound foundations: (1) "There would be a tremendous amount of social reaction." If what is meant here is people taking to the streets; that surely will not happen. Since May 27, 1960, there have always been great social reactions to coups and party closures. However, the voters show their reaction at the ballot box and bring the inheritors of the victimized party into power in the first election by providing great support. I wrote about that in March: If the AK Party is closed down, the new AK Party will garner 57 percent of the vote in the next elections.
(2) "The economy will sustain a great loss." This is an argument in need of being analyzed. The economy has two aspects. The real economy; that is, the one that directly impacts the daily lives of people by being connected to issues such as production, employment, unemployment, equitable distribution of income and the functions of a social state. People have for years been living in a great economic bottleneck; the closure of the party serves to aggravate the people's situation only slightly; that's it. Our people are inured to economic troubles.
The second aspect of the economy is the financial markets. The circulation in these markets occurs in the triangle of the stock exchange, interest and foreign currency. In this triangle, vast sums of money that belong to the biggest players are in question. I'm one of those who think that the major impact of foreign players in the Turkish economy, which has been somehow integrated with the global economy for a long time, plays an important role in political stability. Of course, I'm not completely dismissing the importance of internal political stability, but it is the external factor that plays the major role in the financial markets. It has been five months since the closure case rose to prominence, and the financial markets have not suffered a serious concussion or crisis. The ongoing severe fluctuations in the global economy and in oil and food prices and the jolt suffered by the American economy with the sinking of banks might, of course, negatively affect Turkey in the coming days. However, this is not related to the party closure. This negative effect will come from outside.
(3) "The EU process would suffer a major blow, the reforms would come to naught and a great deal of time would be lost on the road to democratization." Well, all of these would surely happen. But the willpower that has been doing its utmost to shut down the AK Party would greatly rejoice over these occurrences, so much so that, one of the most important reasons they are after closing down the party is that the EU process is continuing, whether or not it will culminate in full membership.
(4) "The Southeast would lose its political representation and it would be very difficult for a Turkish party that could gather the Kurdish voters under its roof to emerge. And maybe the Southeast would be severed from the system completely." I don't think this is based on sound information, either. Naturally, in the event of closure, the Kurdish voters who gave their votes to the AK Party in the July 22 elections would be frustrated to a great extent. But the Kurdish voters in the south and particularly those who live in metropolitan cities -- the ones who have no sense of kinship with the Democratic Society Party (DTP) -- will enter the same waiting phase with the same expectations as the majority of voters all around Turkey. That is, they will start following the new parties, make assessments and make their choices in accordance with their assessments. The closure of the AK Party would neither cause the south to be disconnected from the state nor leave the DTP to arise as the beneficiary. It would just only have a slightly bigger advantage.
Having said all this, it is not possible to say that the closure of the AK Party would serve the country in any fashion or that we would have an unproblematic process. What I want to say is just that these arguments are not based on sound foundations. On the other hand, the picture we will have in the event of closure will be far worse, with the political system based on democracy having sustained an almost-fatal wound.
