Politics in Ankara entirely focuses on this date. Both Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul are having a lot of contacts with Brussels.
We know there is a text of a draft that is circulating around. Intensive and increased initiatives to alter the text will take place during the last minute rush. Promotion activities have also increased. Business circles and non-governmental organizations, led by the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB), will appear on the scene once again as was the case in Copenhagen. They will conduct lobbying activities over Brussels. They will explain that the business world is ready for the EU.
Both supporters and opponents agree that Turkey has done the homework assigned to it in Copenhagen in 2002, and even though there have been some hitches in implementation, these nonetheless are not at a level capable of affecting the decision. Now the whole of Turkey is awaiting a positive decision from European leaders so that it can sit at the negotiation table in 2005.
Despite some disturbing parts in the October 6 Progress Report, positive signs and green light were given. The Cyprus issue is being put forward as a condition for Turkey these days, even though this is not the right time for it. Ankara is being urged, with regards to December 17, to take steps towards recognizing the Greek Cypriot side.
The whole world knows that Turkey has taken great strides forward on the Cyprus issue, beyond expectations, and has displayed its goodwill gestures. It abandoned the past, exceeded the traditional political line, and thus sat at the table to negotiate the Annan Plan. The Turkish Cypriot side accepted the outcome and the report in a referendum, but the great majority of Greek Cypriots rejected them.
While the Turkish Cypriot side expressed its will towards reconciliation through the United Nations (UN) proposals, the Greek Cypriot side did just the opposite. Neither Europe, nor the international community, can say anything against Turkey over Cyprus. It is the Greek Cypriot side that has to pay a price. Prime Minister [Tayyip] Erdogan's ire towards Europe on the Cyprus issue is just to the point.
Europe is split over Turkey. There are incorrigible anti-Turkey groups in Europe which view the Union as a Christian club. Their voices have risen again lately. These groups propose a privileged status and conditional membership talks to Turkey. They pull weight in this direction.
The decision is important both for Europe and Turkey. The decision on Turkey will affect the future of the EU and its mission in the future. Any decision excluding Turkey will make Europe lag far behind in world power balances.
There are groups in Turkey, that want to evaluate the post-December 17 era as a base for settling the old scores. Those who stand aloof from the EU, or to be more precise, those whose personal and institutional interests are damaged by the advantages of Europe, are waiting impatiently. They wish for the worst possibility and want the European door to be closed against Turkey. They desire that Turkey turns into a closed country, its open vision towards the outside world fade away, and both its democracy and liberties have a character peculiar to itself rather than in line with universal standards.
Whichever way a decision emerges from the December summit, whatever direction Turkey-EU relations slide to, it is a point of no return from the spot we are standing right now. Shouldn't the most authoritative organs declare that "the progress towards democracy and liberties is not being made for Europe, but for our society."
If the doors of Europe are closed against Turkey, then will the dominating role of the National Security Council in the system be revived again? Or will other establishments, that will restrict the areas of the political powers emerge? Undoubtedly, some are exerting efforts in this direction; however, I don't think there will be any turning back. Let some negative voices from Europe make nobody optimistic, because they may ultimately be frustrated. If Turkey goes off Europe's rails, the voices of the anti-Europe groups will just rise a little more, that's all.
November 3, 2004
