In this context European Commission President José Manuel Barroso suggested, during a two-day visit to Brussels by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, that the framework energy agreement could be signed within weeks.In addition to this prospective agreement, the EU seems to have reached another agreement with the gas giant of Central Asia, Turkmenistan, during a visit by the EU Troika this week.
The Troika was made up of Slovenian Foreign Minister Dimitrij Rupel, EU Special Representative for Central Asia Pierre Morel, EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, the latter representing the next holder of the EU's rotating presidency.
The Troika's visit to the region was conducted within the framework of the EU Central Asian Strategy, which promotes the expansion and deepening of bilateral and multilateral ties between the EU and Central Asian countries. After months of discussion and evaluation, the strategy was introduced by Germany and became the official strategy of EU in 2007. It seeks to enhance human rights and democratization in the area, and significantly, the EU's energy security.
On April 13 Ferrero-Waldner confirmed in an interview published by the Financial Times that the EU would receive 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan. How the proposed gas will actually be supplied to EU countries remains to be worked out. Ferrero-Waldner mentioned three possible routes; two involved the construction of an undersea pipeline across the Caspian Sea and the other involved liquefying the gas and shipping it across the sea on special tankers. The first two options are probable, but depend on Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan ending their dispute over the share of their respective sections of the Caspian Sea. The third is a far-fetched option, because there is no gas-liquefying plant in the region and the construction of one would require years of work and a lot of money.
Following Ferrero-Waldner's confirmation, European Commission spokeswoman Christiane Hohmann, who was also present at the Troika's discussions with Turkmen officials, disclosed on April 15 that the EU had been told that as of 2009, 10 bcm of gas would be available for transport to Europe. Hohmann said the precise nature of the offer is seen as a "breakthrough" by Brussels.
However, while EU officials were jubilant over the new deal, the Turkmen side was silent. The Turkmen government's Web site has not even gone so far as to report any such deal. The Web site mentions that Turkmenistan and the EU signed a "memorandum on cooperation in the energy sphere" and quotes Turkmen President Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov as saying that Turkmenistan is interested in "broadening its export routes" and that "he invited European partners to participate in large national projects."
If the news and statements by the EU official are true, the "breakthrough deal" Hohmann proclaimed represents a potential watershed in the EU's attempt to decrease its dependence on Russia and diversify its gas supply. If, as EU officials claim, Turkmenistan has promised to supply the EU with 10 bcm of gas, investors will be keen to get in on the development of a trans-Caspian pipeline linking Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. From Azerbaijan, the gas would travel through the pipeline network connecting Turkey and Europe. The new flow of gas would give fresh impetus to the Nabucco pipeline, which is advancing, albeit slowly, and will also change the overall gas equation considerably.
Let us hope the breakthrough is real.
