We had headlined the issue prior to the news article we published last Monday. When everybody thought that the operation would be limited to air strikes, we announced from the pen of our friend and writer Lale Sarıibrahimoğlu, an expert on defense issues, that the Turkish army was making preparations for a ground operation into northern Iraq in the spring. The confirmation to our news stories came after two days from Foreign Minister Ali Babacan. When he remarked that “a ground operation is an option on the table” it was interpreted as indicating that the operation would take place in the spring. In fact, this was the surprising part of the operation, which everybody thought couldn’t be carried out under harsh winter conditions. Apparently, the political officials and military authorities in Ankara prepared the “game plan” of this surprise operation extremely carefully and thought about every single detail.
Now we can appreciate that the biggest challenge our political and military officials faced was to preserve the element of surprise for an operation that was gradually becoming a public expectation and that had already made it onto the agenda of the terrorists in the Kandil Mountains. It may sound strange, but this is why they did not see any problems leaking some information about the operation to the press. After all, the leaked information implied that the operation could be carried out “in the middle of March at the earliest.” This was undoubtedly an effective method of diversion. This was the real trump card of the Turkish military, which has now developed the ability to carry out massive air and ground operations even under harsh winter and night conditions. That is, the question was not whether a ground operation would be carried out; it was when it would be initiated. We see that the estimates were diverted and managed successfully. That’s why I should note the criticism of some analysts, saying, “Can an operation be carried out in such an obvious fashion?” A better way to describe the situation would be “obviously, but all of a sudden.”
The question we should ask at this point is “What will be the results of this operation, for which the international community was prepared with the coordinated diplomatic efforts of the Presidency, the Prime Ministry, the Foreign Ministry and the General Staff at all levels?” We should analyze this question well. I should immediately note that the desperate leadership utopia Massoud Barzani is trying to spread among Kurds by acting like the de facto authority of northern Iraq and defying Turkey has received a very deep wound. It’s out of the question for anybody from now on to take into regard the high-pitched nationalist and defiant remarks of Barzani, who adopted an unnecessary stance against a military operation that targets a heinous terrorist organization.
The process that began within Turkish-US relations on Nov. 5 has shown Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), that his power and prestige were far below the level he had thought. This operation also revealed that Barzani’s “virtual power” is far more fragile than many expected. His dreams of becoming a regional or international actor will fall through completely following this operation. Along with his dreams, he has lost his credibility. The power formulations on which international relations are built exist to prevent one from falling into such situations. Barzani wrongly thought that he could impose a will far greater than his actual power, but this operation has clearly proven that he has in fact no power to support these dreams. The operation will also have a serious impact on the current course of the Kirkuk problem as well as Iraq’s internal balances. We can state that Turkey -- which certain international powers attempted to exclude from Iraq-based regional formulas following the motion of March 1, 2003, which prevented the US from opening a northern front against Iraq -- is returning to its strong and important place in regional balances.
In the meantime, the chief misgiving voiced about the operation is how long the Turkish military will remain inside Iraq. It seems that Turkey, having begun an operation 10 years after the previous one, despite the new order of Iraq, is now a de facto element everybody should take into consideration in the region, whether its troops remain there or not. It has also become a power that should be taken into account for any step to be taken in the region. Therefore, although the chief target of this operation is the terrorist PKK, it will produce many other greater effects. And these effects will probably be most appreciated by Barzani, who assumed he was a superpower himself relying on temporary international support and who displayed terrible leadership skills by creating unnecessary tension through displays of power based on his fallacious thoughts.
The aspect of the operation that looks inward tells us that the Kurdish issue should now be handled regardless of PKK terrorism. As this operation has once again demonstrated, the PKK’s political and de facto demise has come into international view. Therefore, the operation in question is quite different than the previous 25. It deserves to be regarded as the “grand ground operation,” whatever its target, scope and duration might be. Although the terrorist organization has not yet been completely physically terminated, we can comfortably note that the organizational structure of the PKK will enter into a process of rapid dissolution after this operation.
So, is this enough? Definitely not. The real job begins afterwards. While the PKK is attacked in the mountains, measures should be taken to eradicate the factors that still prevent our Kurdish brothers and sisters from feeling like first-class citizens in this country. But we should be very meticulous about something: Our military, which has the utmost importance in this operation, should never be active in the process of developing and implementing these measures. It should make do with a military operation in the mountains, while leaving as much space as possible for politics to solve these problems, which turned gangrenous long ago.
