"What the Turkish people need to come away with from this meeting is that, one, the prime minister has impressed upon me the seriousness of the problem -- I understand it; two, he expects there to be action and I agree. And we've taken some steps along those lines."Despite distraction by the hot events in Pakistan, it was impressive how President Bush elaborated on the question of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) so confidently, including the technical aspects. Good for Turks -- Bush can now spell and pronounce PKK with no problems! Plus he publicly included the organization in his axis of evil in Iraq by saying, "They're an enemy of Turkey, they're an enemy of Iraq and they're an enemy of the United States."
Does that mean the US will attack the PKK like they have attacked other enemies? Of course not. Does that mean Bush would ever be comfortable if Turkey made a major attack on the PKK at the expense of disrupting relative stability in northern Iraq and disturbing his Kurdish buddies there? Certainly no, never. Frankly I don't think Erdoğan had such an unfeasible and insensible plan anyway. So does accompanying Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ergin Saygun have such a plan? Turkish generals are not dying to put their forces into a quagmire in Iraq's mountains.
I sense Turks have come here with operationally manageable, publicly explainable, internationally absorbable action plans. They wanted to take the US on board, along with many other concerned nations. They succeeded. Americans have always wanted to calm the crisis and limit any Turkish response in scope and duration. They also got what they wanted. What's left was to offer the Turkish and American publics what they wanted. Particularly the Turkish side needed a lot of face-saving. With a successful marketer like Erdoğan, it wouldn't be a big problem either. Actionable intelligence sharing through a newly declared "tripartite arrangement" between Turkish and American militaries would fulfill that purpose. The arrangement makes it possible for the number-two guys in both military ranks plus the commander of US forces in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, to stay in touch regularly.
"In order to chase down people who murder people you need good intelligence," Mr. Bush was quoted as saying. Why now, but not earlier? Haven't Turks' so-called strategic partners been pressing for US cooperation against the PKK for years now after the invasion of Iraq? They have had nothing but sympathetic words and postponement tactics so far. Turkey's implicit threat of the use of major force has changed the whole dynamic. Given the enormous public resentment toward Washington, a Turkey alienated too much would make life harder for US in Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, where Ankara must definitely be kept on board. So much for the Bush administration's learning curve.
Kurds, who tend to overplay their hands, must have been surprised about the pressure coming from Washington to do and say the right things; something like that hasn't occurred since 2003 -- and they generally complied. Likewise, the Baghdad government must also have felt the pressure from the US. People weren't taking Turkey seriously because of the ongoing domestic political struggle that prevented Ankara from pursuing a coherent, unified foreign policy. Now that the ruling party has bolstered its mandate from the Turkish public in the July elections, gained more control over the politically zealous generals and an obstructionist president (Ahmet Necdet Sezer) has gone, Ankara has the right of way.
It's unfortunate that until it showed military muscle Turkey could not move things ahead. Diplomacy works best when combined with military strength. Threat of force is usually more fruitful than actually using force. Thanks to that, Turkish officials now believe they have reached most of their diplomatic objectives to convince others something needs to be done against the PKK presence in Iraq.
So what's next? In the short run, with the help and blessing of Washington and the assured utmost care for civilians, Turks will most likely conduct some airborne military actions with precision using real-time intelligence against select terrorist leaders and camps. In the long run, the terrorist organization's logistical lines will be cut. The more regional Kurdish leadership in Iraq puts distance between itself and the PKK the more likely they will be rewarded with a much desired engagement with Ankara -- and that would be a win-win situation for everyone but the PKK.
It is clear this violent organization should not be allowed to poison relations among Ankara, Washington, Baghdad and Arbil anymore. Impressing the former sentiment upon all of them, Ankara has set the ground for cooperation. But it will always take continued efforts to keep people on board and focused.
