One is the smooth election of a president other than the Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül (who has hinted his candidacy), something to which the military has renewed its objection. The second area that Erdoğan wants to conclude, without trouble, is the election of a parliament speaker, and the third and equally important issue is the prevention of a military invasion of northern Iraq by a military that says it wants to crush the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and eradicate its hideouts. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's visit to Ankara on Aug, 7 is part of this exercise and reflects Erdoğan's determination to chance a diplomatic solution to the PKK infiltrations from Iraq rather than allowing the enthusiastic military to invade a neighboring country.If tension is created on any of the above, Erdoğan's ability to prioritize the persisting economic problems that would be postponed would put his ability to govern the nation at stake. We must bear in mind that Erdoğan and his party have received a solid mandate from the voters primarily for them to ensure as much stability as possible.
The remarks reported in yesterday's dailies that "he is looking to produce work, not crisis" must cause us to think that Erdoğan has rightly been looking for a peaceful start to his fresh mandate, giving priority to tackling the things that matter, such as unemployment. Consequently, Erdoğan's invitation of Maliki to Ankara, at which the leaders signed a Memorandum of Understanding covering such thorny areas such as PKK activities in northern Iraq, is part of the Turkish prime minister's efforts to produce a diplomatic solution to the problem rather than a military one.
The anti-terrorism pact forces Iraq to commit itself to tackling the PKK. "Erdoğan is using Maliki's visit as an opportunity to give diplomacy a chance, postponing any possible operations in northern Iraq. He is approaching the matter in a diplomatic and professional way. If the Iraqis fail to live up to their promises in the long term, Erdoğan has the justification for a push into northern Iraq," said a Western military source. "I do not expect a cross-border operation to be staged by Turkey this year," states the same source.
If the source's prediction turns out to be correct, Turkey will be able to make a good fist of delivering the right messages to both Turkish and foreign investors instead of the chaos that could come from an invasion of northern Iraq. It's no secret that Maliki promised to fight against the PKK in the face of serious problems back home which have led to some Cabinet ministers announcing a boycott of government meetings. This is yet another blow to Maliki's efforts to reconcile Iraq's fractious groupings.
Ongoing internal problems will obviously limit Maliki's room to maneuver in addressing Turkish concerns on the PKK in that the Iraqi Kurdish groups have already been playing a key role in blocking genuine efforts to curb the PKK's incursions into Turkey. Despite this, Maliki's visit to Ankara to sign a counterterrorism pact may hint at the fact that, regardless of Iraq's domestic travails, Ankara is showing the world that it is seeking a diplomatic solution to the PKK issue.
For Maliki, delivery of anything good on the counterterrorism accord will make him look good, too. The Maliki-Erdoğan meeting and the delayed signing of the accord will also put pressure on Massoud Barzani, the leader of the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and head of the Iraqi regional Kurdish authority, a man who has long angered Ankara, and to a certain extent the US, with his unsatisfactory stance on the PKK and their operations in the KDP-controlled area. The summit may isolate Barzani and force him to take real action in preventing the PKK attacks into Turkey.
At the end of the day, if the PKK issue is dealt with effectively Turkey and Iraq will have more opportunities to improve trade, especially in the realm of energy. In fact, the two countries also discussed energy cooperation during Maliki's visit. Hilmi Guler, Turkey's minister of natural resources and energy, said the two governments had reached an agreement to cooperate in building two power stations, one in Turkey and one in Iraq; to work on upgrading electricity links; and to work together in oil exploration
As Maliki put it during a press conference in Ankara, the volume of trade between the two nations reached more than $3 billion at the end of 2006. When unregistered trade is added, this rises to more than $5 billion. Both countries should vigorously cultivate opportunities to improve economic ties that will in turn reduce tension on the PKK matter. This policy may also prompt Turkish policy makers to emphasize the solution to the Kurdish problem by rendering the PKK ineffective rather than wasting time in an invasion.
