His prospective presidency, once more hinted at by Gül last week, was again objected to by the strictly secular and politically powerful Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). Those concerned about Gül becoming president raise fears that this situation will prompt the military-led secular establishment to drag its feet for compromise on many domestic and foreign policy issues, such as furthering reforms to reduce the military's weight in politics, as well as thorny issues like progress in Turkish endeavors to join the European Union and on Cyprus.
This category of people do not, in essence, have any objections to Gül's presidency simply because his wife wears a headscarf. Nor are they concerned that it could mean the prime minister, parliament speaker and the president (triple power) will all be from the ruling AK Party, which won almost 47 percent of the votes during the July 22 early general elections.
As a matter of fact, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which secured 71 seats in parliament (a figure that later fell to 70 with the loss of Professor Mehmet Cihat Özönder in a traffic accident), stated soon after the election results that he did not see any problem in the emergence of triple power.
There are also speculations that a deal might be struck between the MHP and the AK Party wherein the MHP would agree to support Gül's presidency, in return for the selection of a parliament speaker from the MHP.
Similarly, 22 independent Kurdish deputies who applied to the Parliament to form a group under the Democratic Society Party (DTP), of which they are members, may agree to vote for Gül's presidency in return for convincing the government not to allow a cross-border operation into northern Iraq to pursue outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists there.
These are the early scenarios being discussed in Ankara -- we have to wait and see how things will evolve in the Parliament, due to convene this Saturday when the 549 (the number of Parliament seats also decreased with Özönder's death) deputies are sworn in.
Outside Parliament, we have been facing the problem of the military-led strictly secular elite raising its objections to Gül's presidency for different reasons.
On Monday July 30, Turkish Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt renewed the military's reservations about Gül's presidency when he made a call for the country's next president to be a committed secularist. "The views of the TSK do not vary from day to day," Gen. Büyükanıt told reporters at a reception marking Turkish Cypriot Armed Forces Day.
"We are fully behind what we said on April 12," he added, referring to a press conference in which he said the next president must "adhere in essence -- and not just in words -- to the ideal of a secular, democratic state."
The April 12 statement of the military was followed by the April 27 "e-memorandum," posted on the Web site of the Turkish General Staff, against Gül's candidacy for the presidential post. The ensuing deadlock over the presidential ballot left the AK Party government forced to take the country to early elections on July 22 -- resulting in the party's landslide victory.
But now we are back to square one, as Gül renewed his desire to stand as the presidential candidate from the AK Party.
A Western military analyst correctly argued that even another candidate from the AK Party, even one whose wife does not wear a headscarf, could support the ruling party's decisions made in Parliament and sent to the president for approval -- this scenario would not necessarily be approved by some state actors outside Parliament.
"I can understand military's feeling. They are emotional over the presidential palace in Çankaya's being inhabited by Gül, whose wife wears a headscarf. But Gül will do a good job as president," the same analyst stated.
As I write this column, the outcome of a meeting between Prime Minister Erdoğan, Gül and current Parliament Speaker Bülent Arınç -- which took place late on night of Aug. 31 and that was continued in a meeting between Erdoğan and Gül -- has still not been revealed.
But the fact that the meeting took place prior to the Supreme Military Council's (YAŞ) four-day deliberations that began yesterday over the promotions and retirements of generals, admirals and colonels, as well as possible expulsions of some officers with alleged extreme fundamentalist tendencies, caused speculation that the late-night gatherings could have centered on Gül's candidacy for the presidential post.
Normally YAŞ, which meets under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Erdoğan, is not a platform for talk about political issues such as the presidency. But the Aug. 1 to 4 meeting is the first gathering together of Erdoğan and the country's top generals since the July 22 elections, and it is highly possible that generals may whisper their objections to Gül's presidency during coffee breaks.
I am not going to state my opinion over the controversy surrounding the presidential elections, but I should stress that decision makers should lead a smooth transition toward democracy in the country that will help to open a new page in Turkey for the benefit of the people. One final point is that we should not try to set up barriers to the river's natural course.
