According to many Western analysts in Ankara, Turkey's calls for an invasion of northern Iraq has less justification now than even three weeks ago as the PKK-led incidents have seen a decrease, mainly in the Kurdish-dominated Southeast. However Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's meeting with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer on July 3, two days earlier than expected, has once again prompted speculation in Ankara that Parliament -- in recess with the approach of the July 22 early elections -- could be summoned to give authority to the military for a cross-border operation.
Since Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt's repeated calls, beginning on April 12, that the military is ready to stage a cross-border operation into northern Iraq if the government outlines the political guidelines and Parliament gives authority, Turkey has entered into a war-like mood before the critical general elections.
Turkey says the PKK enjoys free movement in northern Iraq and obtains arms and explosives there for use in attacks on Turkish soil.
The military and government have created an image that both are playing tennis, hitting the ball back into each other's court. The former insists it needs government authorization for a cross-border operation while the latter responds that if the military comes up with an official request the government may think about granting it.
But recent statements from Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül to the local media, in which he did not rule out a decree that may allow a cross-border operation, has indicated the government has come under increased pressure both from the military and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) to allow the military to conduct a cross-border operation.
Gül said last Friday that Turkey had drawn up plans for an eventual incursion into neighboring northern Iraq to pursue PKK terrorists taking refuge there. He also warned that Turkey would activate its plans if Iraqi authorities or the US failed to curb the PKK, which is listed as a terrorist organization by both Ankara and Washington.
His latest statement came despite both the military, in general, and the government, in particular, being well aware of the possible repercussions of a military operation into northern Iraq, first and foremost on Turkey's international prestige affecting confidence in the country among business circles.
Gül's remarks were interpreted as a green light to the military for a cross-border operation, contradicting Prime Minister Erdoğan's earlier remarks prior to a National Security Council (MGK) meeting in June, saying Turkey should first solve the PKK problem inside Turkey.
The US, which Turkey has rightly been blaming for staying indifferent to PKK activities in northern Iraq, has also warned Turkey against destabilizing northern Iraq by carrying out a cross-border raid on PKK terrorists. The latest US warning came from Brig. Gen. Perry Wiggins, deputy director for operations of the Joint Staff on July 4.
But Gül's latest remarks, indicating that Turkey has drawn up plans for an incursion into northern Iraq, gives me the impression that the government no longer seems able to resist increased pressure mounted on it for a cross-border operation anymore.
The Cabinet's planned meeting next Monday, said to be the last one until the July 22 elections, has also increased speculations that a decision on a cross-border operation may be made and Parliament may convene to issue a decree, making the cross-border operation imminent.
After the ongoing debate over a possible cross-border operation was shared with the public the question now is whether there will be any PKK terrorists left in northern Iraq, in general, and in its camps, in particular. Under these circumstances is it worth a cross-border operation that is also intended to intimidate the Iraqi Kurds from taking control of oil-rich Kirkuk?
I have a strong feeling that the CHP-supported idea of an invasion of northern Iraq by the military, if it takes place, will only help to further paralyze the internal political atmosphere intended to weaken the AK Party to deter it from grabbing the majority of votes.
This domestic political game will unfortunately further destabilize the country, mainly affecting the people. I hope common sense will prevail and no such decision for an incursion will be made.
