The effects of the heinous bombing attack in Ankara and the loss of six Turkish soldiers last week in the Southeast through PKK terrorist acts have been compounded by the tense domestic political atmosphere. Patience has run out. At this point a Turkish operation into northern Iraq is only a matter of time. The decision to eradicate the PKK menace in northern Iraq has been made with determination. The only complications emanate from the upcoming general elections and the potential impact of such an operation. Neither the fragile EU process nor our relationship with the US provides any sort of restraint. Needless to say most decision makers in Ankara are aware that the domestic PKK problem and the Kurdish issue will not be solved by an operation in northern Iraq. That said, it is time that Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani and his men understand that they are neighbors with Turkey. As long as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) harbors the PKK or allows it to operate in northern Iraq, they share the responsibility for the deaths of Turkish soldiers. The last year has clearly shown that Barzani and his entourage have not gotten the message, or simply do not want to act on the matter. Despite our policies of the last four years, events over the last year demand a stance that will soon make Barzani see that we mean business. The changes are already evidenced by the maddening efforts within foreign embassies in Ankara to try and understand what is going on. In addition to the news that two F-16s violated Turkish airspace on Sunday evening as well that of reported Turkish troop movements on the border, statements by KDP executives point to the increasing possibility of a Turkish operation sweeping into northern Iraq.
The sustainability of the current situation was never certain, but the belief in Washington that the fine balance between Arbil and Ankara could be maintained has proven to be a fallacy, especially in view of Barzani’s irresponsible statements and the rise in PKK violence against Turkish targets. Ultimately the current fixation with Iraq and the subsequent priority given to the Kurds will doom Turkish-US relations for decades to come. The current US administration’s disastrous policies in Iraq will be recorded in history as putting an end to the US-Turkish alliance. Worse, there are still 18 months before the next administration will take over office. A lot can happen within this time and, given the current administration’s preference of Kurds over Turks in the regional equation, I am very pessimistic about the future of this relationship. I do not know how often it was said or communicated and it is no longer relevant whether an operation will have an impact on the PKK issue in general; the bottom line is that the PKK must leave northern Iraq! Either Barzani tells them to pack up and move or stops all communication and cooperation with them, or he will need to brace himself for the consequences. It is as simple as that. It is true that a Turkish operation is likely to increase violence within Turkey as well, but I believe we have passed a critical threshold with the Ankara bombing last week.
Turkey is willing to engage with a Kurdish regional entity, but first the PKK menace needs to be taken out of the equation. Turkey cannot engage with Barzani when Turkish soldiers are being killed by PKK terrorists trained and harbored in northern Iraq.
We are approaching a critical turning point in Turkish policy vis-à-vis northern Iraq. The US still has the means to pressure Barzani so that he will make the right choice. Barring that, we are in for a very eventful and problematic period in the region. Let us hope that we will see true leadership on all sides to prevent the perfect storm scenario.
