Turkey has been part of the discussion and there is no doubt that our European and American colleagues have been grappling with understanding what is going on in Turkey. After all, CNN International as well as BBC World have been carrying the news of the Turkish military’s statement and the rally in İstanbul as their top news. They are confused as they do not know what to make of this. The increasingly effective machine of the establishment is deliberately pushing Turkey into a political crisis. They seem to be intent to plunge the country into a political impasse that would lead to … where?
It appears that the secularist camp is truly encouraged by the Tandoğan and Çağlayan rallies. They seem to believe that these rallies and the Constitutional Court process actually signifies a shift in Turkish voting preferences. In the words of one member of the secularist camp, “We hope that the Turkish public has learned from what happened over the last two weeks.” To my amazement they actually believe that this process will benefit the opposition. I do not know how to qualify this sentiment but let us limit ourselves to describing it merely as “wishful thinking.” What is ironic and equally worrying is how slanted and distorted such an interpretation is. Far from seeing the rallies or the alarming attitude of the military as a reason to change their voting preferences that would translate into a “lesser Justice and Development Party (AK Party) majority,” most Turks are genuinely worried by the direct intervention into the presidential election by the establishment. They feel that the AK Party has nominated a moderate and popular presidential candidate with Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül and that he has been victimized by this orchestrated campaign.
It is likely that the social engineering plans of the establishment will backfire. The Turkish public’s perception that the AK Party has been victimized will actually translate into a more sweeping election victory for the party. The dismal performance of the True Path Party (DYP) and the Motherland Party (ANAVATAN) throughout this process will no doubt reflect upon their election performance as well. Both the DYP and ANAVATAN have failed in the test for democracy and, in my opinion, have committed political suicide. We hear that immense pressure has been brought to bear upon DYP leader Mehmet Ağar and ANAVATAN leader Erkan Mumcu.
In the evening hours of the coming election, namely when the election results will become known, there will be some serious soul searching in their respective headquarters. The Turkish electorate has a proven record of punishing such parties and I have no doubt that they will make no exception in this case. I will even go as far as arguing that this stance will eventually cost Ağar the leadership of the DYP, and I want to be on record as saying this.
All in all, the Turkish polity’s pro-establishment wing has failed the test of democracy. They have turned years of stability and predictability into an atmosphere of political crisis and speculations of a military coup. They have marred Turkey’s image as a country with a limited democracy. At this stage the best thing to do is to lead the country safely into an early election. Let the Turkish electorate decide on whether we will become a true democracy or continue to be a limited and managed democracy.
