I think the names spelled out in the survey sent to party branches are those thrown out to be debated and that none ultimately have any chance of being nominated by the party. There is still a long period until the election process begins and thus the public needs some names to discuss. The survey is just part of "managing the process." I will explain why. If Erdoğan himself steps down and the AK Party nominates one of the names from its survey, then no one can stop Parliament Speaker Bülent Arınç from coming forward as a candidate and he will comfortably beat all of those names surveyed. The AK Party deputies of Kurdish origin, who number around 50 to 60, will not vote for any of those listed but Arınç. Moreover those deputies with a "national view" background, numbering at least as many as those with a Kurdish background, will also support Arınç. Added to this will be anger and disappointment among the AK Party grassroots and parliamentary group over the party's choosing candidates whose wives do not wear headscarves; Arınç will be the next president.
Does Erdoğan know this? I have no doubt. Will he allow this to happen? Certainly not. If he decides to stand for Çankaya no one in the party would oppose him. Yet I am not sure if he really wants to. His decision depends on many variables.
A factor in Erdoğan's decision will be the expected performance of the AK Party in the next parliamentary elections. If Erdoğan sees that his party will not be able to form a majority in Parliament after the next election then he may decide to remain party leader and fight for absolute victory in the elections. He must be aware that without an AK Party majority he will have a very tough time at Çankaya. As opinion polls still predict an AK Party victory in the next elections, Erdoğan may be tempted to go for the presidency.
However Erdoğan could chose not to antagonize those in the establishment and populace that oppose him and step down. By nominating someone else at the last moment he will appear a person confident enough to reject an opportunity to become president, someone prepared to compromise and a man who believes in teamwork. This would certainly leave his opponents out maneuvered and add to his party's strength in the upcoming general elections.
But to face criticism that he would not dare to be a candidate over the anticipated reactions of the "dynamic forces," he could nominate someone from the party whose wife wears a headscarf.
This brings up Abdullah Gül as the strongest contender for the top job. Gül is a good candidate capable of standing against Arınç. Gül's election would not be a problem for the establishment, despite the fact that his wife wears a headscarf. Moreover this may be seen as an historic compromise between the two sides, easing in the coming years the tension over the headscarf issue in Turkey. Gül's election may also boost AK Party morale, increasing its electoral performance in November. And a headscarf-wearing first lady would be a perfect apology for being unable to resolve the issue at universities.
Erdoğan may, however, not wish to lose his second man in the party in the run up to a crucial election, opening up possibilities for new names within the party. It is even possible that the AK Party may endorse two or three candidates who will compete with each other. Such a strategy may even make the opposition parties to take part in the election, which will strengthen the legitimacy of the whole process, electing the candidate considered most moderate.
If it comes to a nomination from outside Parliament, to follow Yavuz Baydar's list, an undisputed name will be Haşim Kılıç, the deputy president of the Constitutional Court. With his liberal and conservative credentials he may be seen as the perfect heir to the outgoing president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who had served as head of the court before his election. Indeed this is not unlikely in order to avoid a split in the parliamentary group and prevent Arınç winning against other weak or sectarian candidates within the parliamentary group.
Anyhow, I am preparing myself for a surprise…
