Both the military and the political leadership alike are well aware that a cross-border operation will not solve Turkey's Kurdish problem as a whole but will simply ease artificial concerns raised by the Turkish public which has increasingly been seeing ultranationalism as a saviour to the social problems they are engulfed in.Incidentally, and to the surprise of many, especially among the Western countries, despite having entered an election year -- presidential and national elections -- Turkish politicians have been heavily involved in foreign policy issues such as northern Iraq instead of trying to address the country's growing discontent and frustration over increased poverty.
In democracies, politicians' success is usually measured by their work and how they address people's economic grievances rather than foreign policy issues. But in Turkey, despite growing discontent among the public over their economic situation -- though on the macro level general positive signals are observed -- decision makers continue to use foreign policy issues for their electoral campaigns.
This trend is not surprising in Turkey because the Turkish public is being fed short term gains, such as a possible operation into northern Iraq, instead of being prepared for the groundwork for thinking about solutions to the country's Kurdish problem in particular and social problems in general. As a result, politicians and the military alike have become the captives of a public opinion that they themselves consciously built over the years. As such, both the politically powerful military and the political leadership have come to the point of winning sympathy from the public by playing the dangerous game of stirring up the already existing ultranationalist sentiments of the masses.
Unfortunately, the idea that the Turkish military is still entertaining the option of entering northern Iraq unilaterally even if the US refuses to coordinate such an operation sounds nice to those in Turkey who have been building in themselves ultranationalist sentiments. But for those rational Turks and foreigners alike, the idea of any possible Turkish operation into northern Iraq, with or without the US, is not only crazy but alarming too.
In fact, the Turkish General Staff's request to the South Korean government to get ready to withdraw its 3,500 troops from northern Iraq in late December because the Turkish military was preparing for an operation in the region alarmed the Seoul government.
As long as the possibility of a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq is kept on the table by Ankara's power centers -- in particular the military as it warned the Koreans to get ready to withdraw their troops back in late December -- power centers which are understood to be considering this option seriously, we will continue to hold our breath over whether Turkey will engage in such a dangerous game.
As a matter of fact, South Korean Defence Minister Jang-Soo Kim, who is planning to visit Ankara between March 6 and 19, is expecting an answer on the possibility of a Turkish cross-border operation before deciding to evacuate Korean troops, there for humanitarian aid, from northern Iraq.
If we start hearing reports after Kim's visit that South Korea has decided to withdraw its troops from northern Iraq then we could guess that a cross-border operation is imminent as the snow is starting to melt in the region, easing the work of the Turkish soldiers. I sincerely hope that South Korea will not make an announcement on evacuating its troops from northern Iraq with no satisfactory reason. That will mean at least that a possible Turkish operation is not imminent.
Nevertheless, as long as Turkish decision makers feed the public, a public short of an intellectual education, with artificial but dangerous agendas such as an invasion of a neighbour, democracy will not flourish in my country.
