The second choice for the US can be an immediate withdrawal. But in that case, without the American military presence, the conflict in Iraq can spread far beyond Iraq, including some regional states that are still not direct players in this war. In brief, the “Middle Eastern Threat” will grow. That means the trouble will carry on, no matter if the US stays or leaves. So there must be a third choice.The overwhelming cost of the war creates a recession risk for the US economy, which will bring a great danger for economies all over the world. The danger is certainly more important for countries having important trade and investment relations with the US. The catastrophe scenarios are very disturbing for European markets but European governments prefer to look to “immigrants” or to Chinese competition to understand their economies’ problems. The EU accuses the US of wasting money in Iraq but doesn’t mention its impact on the European economy. Meanwhile, European countries implicitly want the US to secure Iraq. It is quite clear that a chaotic Middle East will produce more immigrants heading for Europe. Besides, no one knows how to realize reconstruction projects or to improve foreign investment if the chaos spreads.
Before the war in Iraq, the US had asked its Western allies if they wanted to support this action. Many EU member countries have promised to contribute in different ways. But when the US faced serious problems on the ground, they all deserted the US, except the United Kingdom. As the latter has its own problems, it couldn’t play its ally role as was expected. In brief, European countries left the US to deal with its problem on its own. Whatever their reasons were, the price of this attitude has become unbearable. Russia affirms indirectly that it can provide help to the US in order to handle the situation, as it understands best the impasse in which the US is in. Putin’s latest declarations serve to legitimize the US presence in Iraq. But the US is unwilling to receive more Russian help because it doesn’t want Russia to expand its influence. At this point the third choice appears to be, namely, the US need for assistance from the Europeans.
Some European countries enjoy saying that they warned the US before the war and they continue to create obstacles rather than simply staying out. Some European countries hope to get themselves in the region through Iran, Syria, Lebanon or the PKK. Their vain efforts are not making things easier, not for the US nor for the region itself. Obviously, it is not easy to align oneself with the Bush administration after criticizing it for a very long time. It is not easy either to convince European citizens in countries where elections are about to take place. It is not easy, but the current situation is not sustainable.
Maybe the time has come to think if a rapprochement of some of the European powers with the US would be more constructive to the EU’s future.
