Another coincidence is the meeting between Olmert and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Israel just after these visits. We don’t know exactly the substance of the talks but their similar content can be coincidental. But the complementarity of these visits and their themes are a necessity rather than a chance. The main subject of the Turkish officials’ visits to the US was Iraq and northern Iraq. The two sides’ rhetoric is becoming similar and the mutual confidence is growing. The Turkish chief of general staff has said that the Turkish public should stop insulting the American commander in Iraq because of his role in the arrest of Turkish soldiers in northern Iraq in 2003, and he has affirmed that the US has now supportive attitudes on the PKK issue. The US helps Turkey by blocking European financial assistance towards the PKK and Turkey has decided to leave the resolution of the issue in northern Iraq to the Iraqis and Americans. The US administration has promised to do its best to prevent the recognition of the “Armenian genocide” by Congress, while Turkey is trying to cut international connections of radical Sunni groups. This groundwork is quite promising.
The talks with Israel are more covert but they have a similar agenda. The most important problem for Israel is the absence of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations because of the conflict between Fatah and Hamas. Mahmoud Abbas wants to negotiate with Israel, but Hamas doesn’t agree, so they should be convinced. Israel, which has become an expert on construction business thanks their experience with building walls and digging ditches, wants a Turkish contribution. Israel has tried to accelerate the realization of projects on oil, natural gas, electric and water transfer between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea which will serve not only Israel, but also Palestinians. Another important project is to create an Organized Industrial Zone in Turkey. These propositions are not only lucrative but they can also break the Cyprus-Lebanon energy axis. This can help to ease Palestinians’ distress and heal Israeli-Turkish relationship. In that case, Turkey should play a constructive role in establishing of equilibrium between Hamas and Fatah.
Meanwhile, as a great coincidence, Rice mediates negotiations between Israel and Abbas, seen as the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian Authority. But there are some incoherencies there. First of all, the main reason of the conflict between Hamas and Fatah is the latter’s proximity to the US. In other words, as much as Abbas approaches to the US, Hamas becomes more reticent about him. Maybe Turkey’s role could be to prevent this reticence. Secondly, the US-Israel-Turkey triangle has a major problem. All three countries agree to reinforce their ties in order to stabilize the region, but their views on Iran differ. The US and Israel want to isolate Iran as much as possible but Turkey’s decision is still unknown.
In this context, Prime Minister Erdoğan’s visit to Saudi Arabia must certainly be a coincidence.
