This is why I immediately zoomed in on a new poll conducted in 27 countries and published by the BBC, which shows that most people around the world, whether they are Muslim, Christian or of another religious background, do not believe in the inevitability of a “clash of civilizations.” I know that the results of this survey are hardly going to end the war in Iraq, stop terrorism in its tracks and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But since September 11, 2001, there have been many opinion polls suggesting that political fear-mongering on all sides had succeeded in driving a wedge between East and West. A study suggesting that global public opinion has not entirely lost its common sense is therefore welcome news. Perhaps I’m grasping at straws here, but I want to believe there is a better way forward than armed conflict.
This poll of 28,000 people shows that 56 percent worldwide believe that “common ground” can be found. This is twice as many as the 28 percent who think “violent conflict is inevitable.” And while 29 percent believe religious or cultural differences are the cause of tensions, more than half, 52 percent, attribute the polarization to conflicting political interests.
The details of the study reveal some surprising results. The Lebanese, for example, who have gone through a devastating factional conflict in the past and are once again in the grip of communal tension, are the most reluctant (14 percent) to see religious or cultural differences as the source of the current problems. In Indonesia, on the other hand, 51 percent of people are resigned to the idea of violent conflict.
Interestingly, in the European countries most ambivalent about Muslim Turkey’s EU membership, fundamental differences between Islam and the West are only blamed for the current tension by a relatively small percentage of public opinion: seven percent in France and 23 percent in Germany. It is also encouraging that in the US and the UK, the two countries that are driving the Iraq conflict, the public has not been convinced by the politicians’ depiction of a sharply divided world. In Great Britain, only nine percent accept the idea of a fundamental religious schism, while 70 percent believe the tension is driven by small minorities on both sides. Even in the US too, fundamental religious differences are only seen as the underlying cause of polarization by 17 percent of those surveyed, while 54 percent prefer to accuse minorities on both sides, 12 percent blame fundamentalist Muslim minorities and 7 percent hold Christian radicals responsible.
In Turkey, public opinion appears less hopeful that conflict can be avoided. Less than half the Turks (49 percent) believe it is possible for Muslims and Westerners to find common ground. Although 57 percent of Turks attribute the current tension on intolerant minorities on both sides, 20 percent blame the intolerance of a Western minority while only 2 percent of Turks point the finger at an intolerant Muslim minority. Close to a quarter of Turks, 23 percent, see fundamental differences between Western and Muslim cultures as the source of tension.
The overall results of this survey suggest the tide can still be turned. Samuel Huntington’s theory of a “clash of civilizations” does not have to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is a common ground on which to build better inter-cultural and inter-religious dialogue. One major obstacle is that in our increasingly flawed democracies, politicians concentrate on their short-term interests and remain deaf to popular opinion.
